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    Prediction Market Industry Valuations & Volume (2026)

    Live snapshot of Kalshi, Polymarket, and the wider CFTC-regulated event-contract industry.

    Scoreboard
    Audited weekly
    Last updated: 2026-04-27
    Next audit: 2026-05-04

    How this page works

    1. Every number on this page is sourced. The source is shown inline.
    2. This page does not rank platforms by valuation. Valuation is a fundraising outcome, not a product-quality signal. A higher valuation does not mean a better trading platform for users.
    3. This page does not project the future. Third-party projections we cite (Bernstein, BofA) are labeled as third-party estimates, not PM.US claims.
    4. This page does not include internal estimates. If a number is not in a primary filing, a press release, or a triangulated wire source (Reuters / Bloomberg / WSJ / CNBC), it does not appear here.
    5. When a number changes, we update the JSON and show the prior value in an update log, same pattern as our V2 cutover date-correction log.
    6. We do not cite reddit, wikipedia, medium, crypto-press aggregators (CoinDesk / Benzinga / CoinTelegraph / Decrypt / Bitcoin.com / Bankless / Blockhead / Blockonomi / CoinGenius / Crypto-Economy / CryptoTimes / CoinMarketCap Academy / MoneyCheck), affiliate / promo sites, or any domain on our banned-citations list. We source directly from Reuters, Bloomberg, WSJ, CNBC, company press releases, and regulatory filings.
    7. "Valuation" on this page means the valuation set by a named fundraising round, not a secondary-market share price, not a self-reported marketing claim, not a rumored number. If a round is in-talks but not closed, the row is labeled "in talks" and a confidence badge is shown.
    8. This page does NOT imply PM.US has a financial relationship with any platform listed. All outbound links are editorial references, not affiliate routes, and carry rel="noopener".
    9. When a Tier-1 outlet (Reuters / Bloomberg / WSJ / NYT / FT) publishes a named narrative-frame shift that affects the reader context of this page, we record the shift in narrativeShifts[] and render a neutral Narrative-Context callout. We do not rewrite rows to match the new frame. Rows change only on primary-source evidence.

    Narrative context (added 2026-04-22)

    Bloomberg has moved from a co-leader frame to a lead-reversal frame on prediction-market US volume. Piece: “Polymarket Loses Prediction-Market Lead After Delays, Blowback” (Annie Massa, Emily Nicolle, Isis Almeida, Katherine Doherty, 2026-04-22).

    What this means for the page below: This page reports named fundraising-round valuations and cited industry volumes; it does not rank platforms. The Bloomberg piece observes a narrative shift (co-leader framing → lead-reversal framing) that precedes any named-round or published-volume change. No row on this page changes based on this observation; we flag the shift so readers understand the broader narrative context in which our numbers sit.

    Read the Bloomberg piece

    Corroborated by: Unchained (2026-04-23)

    Platform Valuation Snapshot

    Kalshi
    closed round

    Latest valuation: $22B

    Round size: $1B+

    Lead / co-lead: Coatue Management

    Announced: 2026-03-19

    Prior: $11B (Dec 2025)

    www.bloomberg.com

    Data verification in progress.

    Polymarket
    in talks — unconfirmed

    Latest valuation: ~$15B

    Round size: ~$400M (round could total ~$1B)

    Lead / co-lead: ICE (prior $600M committed; up to $2B total per ICE release)

    Announced: 2026-04-19

    Prior: $9B (Oct 2025, ICE $1B stake / up to $2B commitment)

    www.reuters.com

    Reuters citing The Information first reported the in-talks frame. Bloomberg Apr 20 2026 (Massa/Nicolle) corroborates: Polymarket secured $600M at a $15B valuation in March 2026 and is now seeking an additional $400M, with the company's value 'up from $9 billion last year, when Intercontinental Exchange Inc. ... took a $1 billion stake.' The $9B prior post-money traces to the ICE strategic investment announced Oct 7 2025 (Fortune coverage and ICE press release on file). Treat as in-talks, confidence medium, until a named final-close announcement lands.

    Data verification in progress.

    PredictIt
    non-profit transition

    Latest valuation: n/a

    Round size: —

    Lead / co-lead: —

    Announced: —

    Prior: —

    PredictIt operates under a non-profit university arrangement and was acquired/transitioned through Aristotle → Underdog structures. Not independently valued via a priced round.

    Data verification in progress.

    ForecastEx
    wholly-owned subsidiary

    Latest valuation: n/a

    Round size: —

    Lead / co-lead: Interactive Brokers

    Announced: —

    Prior: —

    ForecastEx is wholly owned by Interactive Brokers. No independent private-round valuation exists.

    Data verification in progress.

    Sleeper Markets
    closed round

    Latest valuation: $500M

    Round size: not publicly disclosed

    Lead / co-lead: not publicly disclosed

    Announced: 2026-02

    Prior: not publicly disclosed

    Sleeper Markets Series B at ~$500M reported in early 2026. If no primary source is attached on review, this row is marked "data verification in progress" or removed rather than left unsourced.

    Data verification in progress.

    Platform Volume Snapshot

    MetricKalshiPolymarketSource
    Annualized revenue run-rate~$1.5Bnot disclosedwww.bloomberg.com
    Single-month peak volume (2026)~$10B (Feb 2026)not disclosedwww.bloomberg.com
    2025 full-year volume~$23.8Bnot disclosedpending
    Single-day peak volume~$1B (Super Bowl 2026)not disclosedpending
    Sports share of volume~85–90%US sports via Polymarket US; non-US primarily politics / macro / newsfortune.com

    2025 full-year volume: Kalshi 2025 full-year volume is widely reported at ~$23.8B. Without a direct Kalshi-issued or Bloomberg/Reuters/WSJ primary source on file, the figure is downgraded to "annualized per Bloomberg Mar '26 coverage" and the precise dollar figure is dropped.

    Sports share of volume: Fortune Apr 20 2026 reports "over 85%". NYT/The Athletic Mar 9 2026 reported "more than 90%". Range shown pending lock on the most recent primary source.

    Industry-Scale Volume (Cross-Platform)

    • Jan 2026:~$27B[FalconX / Artemis Prediction Market Dashboard]
    • 2025 full-year:~$64B[FalconX / Artemis Prediction Market Dashboard]

    Cross-platform aggregation sources are dashboard services, not platform-issued filings. Figures are rounded and reflect the most-recently-published snapshot.

    Third-Party Projections (Not PM.US Claims)

    SourceProjectionHorizonLabelLink
    Bernstein$240B industry volume2026
    third-party estimate
    		www.cnbc.com
    Bernstein$1T industry volume2030
    third-party estimate
    		www.cnbc.com
    Bank of America$1.1T sports event-betting TAMTAM (no dated horizon)
    third-party estimate
    		pending

    Every row above is a third-party estimate. Projections are included as industry context, not PM.US forecasts.

    Investor Roster

    kalshi

    • Coatue Management (lead, Mar 2026)
    • Paradigm (lead, Dec 2025)
    • Sequoia
    • Andreessen Horowitz (a16z)
    • ARK Invest
    • CapitalG

    polymarket

    • ICE / Intercontinental Exchange (strategic; $600M Mar 2026, up to $2B total per ICE release)
    • Founders Fund
    • Vitalik Buterin (angel)
    • Additional LPs per in-talks round (not yet disclosed)

    sleeper

    • Not publicly disclosed

    What a User Should NOT Read Into Valuations

    Valuation ≠ safety

    Both Kalshi and Polymarket are CFTC-regulated. Both face state-level litigation. Platform safety is governed by regulation, segregation of customer funds, and ongoing court rulings — not by fundraising outcomes.

    Valuation ≠ better product

    A higher private valuation reflects investor appetite, not product-market fit for any given user. Different platforms serve different users. See our platform comparisons for feature-level differences.

    Valuation ≠ permanence

    High private valuations have cratered before in crypto and fintech. FTX was valued at $32B the month before it collapsed. Private mark-ups are not durability signals. Treat valuation as one input alongside regulation, product, and trust signals.

    Related Pages

    PM ETF SEC Filings Tracker (18 funds)→Institutional-Data Distribution Map→Kevin Warsh's Polymarket Stake Disclosure→Federal vs State PM Calendar→Finance-First Prediction Markets→Prediction Market Entity Map→Kalshi Guide→Polymarket Guide→Regulatory Tracker→

    Frequently Asked Questions

    Corrections & Update Log

    DateFieldFromToSourceNotes
    2026-04-20page-creation—initial publication with Kalshi $22B (closed Mar 2026) + Polymarket ~$15B (in talks)www.reuters.comFirst entry — page creation triggered by Polymarket $15B Reuters and Bernstein $1T projection coverage converging in the same news cycle.
    2026-04-27platformValuations[Polymarket].priorValuationnot publicly disclosed at this scale$9B (Oct 2025, ICE $1B stake / up to $2B commitment)www.bloomberg.comWeekly audit cycle (next due 2026-04-27 → advanced to 2026-05-04). Bloomberg Apr 20 (Massa/Nicolle) directly states value 'up from $9 billion last year, when Intercontinental Exchange Inc. ... took a $1 billion stake'. Corroborated by Fortune Oct 7 2025 ICE strategic-investment coverage and ICE press release already on file. Bloomberg Apr 20 added to approvedPrimarySources alongside Reuters Apr 20 already on file. CMC explicitly NOT used (banned source per restraint contract). Polymarket sourceNote rewritten to reflect Bloomberg corroboration of the $600M-at-$15B Mar 2026 round + $400M in-talks add-on. Status field unchanged — held conservative until a named final-close announcement lands.

    Sources

    Audit cadence: weekly, plus on any named-round announcement. This page refuses 28 banned or non-primary domains; see our accuracy policy for the full list.

    PredictionMarkets.US does not have a financial relationship with any platform listed on this page. All outbound links are editorial references, not affiliate routes. Valuation coverage does not imply endorsement.