What is the death caveat in prediction markets?

Many political and event markets include a 'death or incapacitation' clause that can change how a contract resolves if a key figure dies or becomes permanently incapacitated. The exact effect depends on the contract rules, so traders should read the market-specific resolution criteria before buying.

How do I file a CFTC complaint about a prediction market?

You can file a complaint with the CFTC through its official complaint portal if you believe a registered platform violated its own rules or CFTC regulations. Start by preserving the market rules, resolution source, timestamps, and platform support record.

What is the difference between Kalshi and Polymarket settlement?

Kalshi settles contracts as a CFTC-regulated DCM + DCO (Designated Contract Market and Derivatives Clearing Organization) with internal resolution procedures. Polymarket uses UMA's optimistic oracle for resolution (operating as CFTC DCM via QCX LLC), where outcomes can be challenged through a decentralized process. Kalshi's approach is centralized; Polymarket's is more publicly auditable but can be more complex for traders.

If I use Coinbase Predict or Robinhood prediction markets, is it actually Kalshi?

Yes. Coinbase Predict, Robinhood prediction markets, and other white-label partners use Kalshi as the underlying exchange (CFTC-regulated DCM + DCO (Designated Contract Market and Derivatives Clearing Organization)). Your contracts are Kalshi contracts governed by Kalshi's resolution criteria.

What should I check before trading on a prediction market?

Read the resolution criteria before buying, screenshot the terms at purchase, save the resolution source URL, confirm the underlying exchange or wrapper rail, and know the official dispute or support path.

What is a prediction market oracle?

An oracle is the official data source a prediction market uses to determine the outcome. It's defined in the market rules before trading starts. The oracle's reading — not the chart, not your account balance — is what determines who wins.

What is CF Benchmarks and why does Coinbase use it?

CF Benchmarks is a regulated benchmark provider that publishes reference rates for crypto assets like BTC and ETH. Their BRTI (Bitcoin Real Time Index) is a volume-weighted aggregation across major exchanges. If a contract names that benchmark as the settlement source, the benchmark reading — not a live exchange chart — controls the result.

Who decides if a prediction market resolved correctly?

It depends on the platform. Kalshi uses internal resolution procedures for its contracts. Polymarket uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle, where proposed outcomes can be challenged and escalated through a token-holder process. ForecastEx follows contract specifications reviewed through its platform procedures.

Has a prediction market ever resolved incorrectly?

Yes, disputed and surprising resolutions have happened on multiple platforms. The safest general lesson is to read the exact resolution criteria, source, edge-case language, and dispute path before trading rather than relying on the market title alone.

Last updated: March 2026

HomeHow Markets Settle

How Prediction Markets Settle

Q: Can resolution rules change after the market is published and trading has started?

Clarifications can exist, but the market title is not enough and not every clarification is a retroactive rule change. Read the live rules, resolution source, end date, edge cases, and any official clarification or update trail before trading.

Rules, disputes, and what actually determines whether you get paid.

Compare Platforms Transparency Scorecard

Settlement disputes are the #1 trust issue in prediction markets right now. This page exists because platforms won’t write it. The rules matter — here’s what you need to know before you put money in.

Quick Pick a Platform

Platform Settlement Cards

Settlement Method Comparison

Platform	Who resolves?	Public rules?	Dispute path	Rule-change risk
Kalshi	Internal (DCM)	Yes	CFTC complaint / NFA	Elevated
Polymarket	UMA oracle	Yes (on-chain)	Oracle re-vote	Lower
PredictIt	Academic oversight	Yes	CFTC No-Action Letter	Low
ForecastEx	Internal (DCM)	Yes	CFTC complaint / NFA	Low
Sporttrade	Internal	Limited	State gaming commission	Low

Controversy Timeline

Documented disputes that affected real traders. Understanding them helps you avoid the same mistakes.

BI/NPR/Bloomberg trust framing escalation

Mar 2026

Mainstream coverage elevated settlement fine-print and contract-trust issues into a broader public discussion about prediction-market transparency.

Strait of Hormuz rule-change dispute

Mar 2026

Traders claimed Polymarket updated or clarified resolution criteria after trading had opened. The controversy highlighted why traders should preserve the original rules, source language, and official update trail instead of relying on a headline question.

Khamenei death caveat controversy

Feb 2026

Khamenei-related Kalshi contracts became a flashpoint over death-caveat language and how event contracts should resolve when a key figure dies. The episode drew public criticism and legal scrutiny, but page-level copy avoids hard dollar and process claims not established here with primary-source citations.

Cardi B Super Bowl settlement ambiguity

Feb 2026

A celebrity-performance market became a trust example after traders argued the resolution criteria were too ambiguous. It remains relevant as a cautionary case for reading the exact contract wording before trading.

White-label support gap (Coinbase Predict)

Jan 2026

White-label prediction products can create confusion about who actually lists the contract, who holds customer funds, and where disputes should be escalated. Traders should confirm the underlying exchange and complaint path before trading.

Before You Trade — Checklist

0/5 completed — bookmark this page and check before every trade.

Your Rights — What the CFTC Covers

CFTC-licensed platforms must:

Maintain segregated customer funds

Provide complaint procedures

Follow CFTC rules for contract amendments

Publish resolution criteria publicly

Conduct market manipulation surveillance

CFTC does NOT guarantee:

You’ll agree with how a market resolves

Prevention of rule changes mid-contract

Recovery of money from disputed settlements

Resolution matching your expectations

FDIC-style deposit insurance

How to File a CFTC Complaint

• Online: cftc.gov/complaint

• Phone: 866-366-2382

• NFA Dispute Resolution: nfa.futures.org

Filing a complaint is free and creates an official record. The CFTC investigates patterns — individual complaints may not get individual responses, but they matter.

Related Trust Pages

Transparency Scorecard Kalshi Controversy Kalshi vs Polymarket Compare Markets

Exact-intent settlement check

Can prediction-market rules change after trading starts?

Short answer: the market title is not enough. Read the live rules, resolution source, end date, edge cases, and any official clarification or update trail before trading. Clarifications can exist, but this page does not treat every clarification as a retroactive rule change.

Jump to Polymarket clarification flow Dispute evidence checklist

Can resolution rules change after the market is published and trading has started?

The practical answer is narrower than the panic version of the question: official clarifications may exist, but the controlling evidence is the market's rule text, named source, edge-case language, and official update trail — not a Reddit thread, headline wording, or app-card summary.

Polymarket

Predefined rules + Additional context

Polymarket's official docs say rules define the market and that rare unforeseen circumstances can require an Additional context update. The same docs say a clarification cannot change the fundamental intent of the question.

Kalshi

Contract-specific criteria

Kalshi contracts turn on the market-specific resolution criteria and applicable rulebook language. If a wrapper app shows the contract, read the underlying Kalshi criteria before assuming the headline controls.

Wrappers

The rail controls the language

Coinbase Predict, Robinhood, and other app surfaces can change the user journey, but the underlying exchange or rail may still control the contract wording, resolution source, and dispute path.

Official source spine

Polymarket resolution clarification model

Polymarket resolution docs

Rules define the market

Every Polymarket market has predefined resolution rules; the market title is not the controlling source.

“Every market has pre-defined resolution rules that specify: Resolution source, End date, Edge cases. Always read the resolution rules before trading. The market title describes the question, but the rules define how it resolves.”

Additional context can exist

Polymarket says rare unforeseen circumstances can require an Additional context update after trading begins, but that clarification cannot change the fundamental intent of the question.

“In rare cases, unforeseen circumstances require clarification of the rules after trading begins. Polymarket may issue an ‘Additional context’ update... Clarifications: Cannot change the fundamental intent of the question; Are published onchain via the bulletin board contract; Should be considered by UMA voters when resolving disputes.”

What to check before you trade

Screenshot current market rules.
Save the resolution source URL.
Check edge-case and fallback clauses.
Check the dispute or clarification path.
Confirm app wrapper versus underlying exchange.

What this does not mean

• Not every clarification is a retroactive rule change.
• Not every confusing resolution is platform misconduct.
• Not legal advice. Verify the live market language yourself.

Shared warnings

Clarification is not automatically misconduct

A clarification may affect how proposers and voters interpret a market, but this guide avoids fraud or deception language without primary-source adjudication.

Wrapper apps do not control rail rules

If a user trades through a wrapper, the underlying exchange or rail may still control the contract language and resolution process.

How Settlement Sources Are Chosen

Every prediction market picks one official data source before trading opens. That source is the one that counts at settlement. If your chart, balance, or favorite news app says something different, the locked-in source still decides the outcome. Most sources fall into one of four categories.

Price Index

Example source:: CF Benchmarks (BRTI)
Used for:: BTC/USD, ETH/USD, and other benchmark-linked contracts
Platforms:: Used on benchmark-linked crypto contracts

The oracle publishes a reference rate at a specific time. This may differ from the live chart price.

Weather Station

Example source:: NOAA / National Weather Service
Used for:: Temperature, precipitation, wind speed
Platforms:: Used on weather-linked contracts

Resolves from a designated NOAA station, not your local weather app. Station location matters.

Official Result

Example source:: Official election authorities or government releases
Used for:: Elections, referendums, and other official-outcome contracts
Platforms:: Common on regulated event contracts

Resolution follows the source named in the contract rules. Timing rules matter.

Media / Policy Reporting

Example source:: Federal Reserve, BLS, or another named publisher
Used for:: Fed rate decisions, jobs reports, CPI
Platforms:: Used when the contract names a specific publisher or release

Resolves when the named body publishes a number or statement. Time of publication matters.

How to find your resolution source before you trade

This takes under 60 seconds, and it saves a lot of avoidable confusion later.

Click the market details

Every platform has a rules or "how it settles" section on the market page. Kalshi calls it "Resolution Criteria." Polymarket calls it "Rules." ForecastEx and Coinbase have a dedicated settlement details section. Read it before you buy.

Find the oracle name

Look for a specific source name — CF Benchmarks, NOAA, AP, Reuters, Federal Reserve, etc. If it says "as reported by [source]" — that source is locked in. The name matters, not the category.

Verify what that source actually measures

CF Benchmarks uses a specific BTC/USD reference rate methodology, not the live chart price. NOAA uses a specific weather station, not your local app. Knowing the source = knowing the actual question being traded.

The CF Benchmarks case: why this matters in practice

In early 2026, Coinbase BTC prediction markets resolved from CF Benchmarks' BRTI reference rate, not the live Coinbase chart price. When those two prices diverged at settlement, some users thought the platform had made a mistake. The rules said otherwise: the contract resolved exactly from CF Benchmarks. If you read the resolution criteria first, you knew which number mattered.

The lesson: The oracle is defined before the market opens. If you didn't read it, the resolution may surprise you — but it's following the rules exactly as written.

Honest limitations

Every CFTC-regulated market must specify resolution criteria in advance (filed with the CFTC).
UMA oracle disputes on Polymarket are on-chain and publicly auditable.
Oracle sources can be ambiguous in genuine edge cases — platforms have some discretion in those situations.
Weather station and temperature rounding has produced genuine user confusion on Kalshi (2025–26).
CF Benchmarks methodology is published but technical — most retail users won't read it before trading.

How Platforms Verify Winners

Once the event happens, the platform has to actually read the source and post a resolution. There are three main models for that last step — designated source, decentralized oracle, and internal committee. Each has a different risk profile.

📡

Designated Data Source

Kalshi (economic/political), Polymarket (politics), ForecastEx (all categories)

Risk: LOW

The market contract specifies a single authoritative source (e.g., BLS.gov for CPI, AP race call for elections). When the source publishes, the platform reads it and resolves automatically or with minimal review.

Examples

CPI inflation markets → BLS.gov official release
Fed rate decision → Federal Reserve official statement
Election results → AP race call / major wire services

Low ambiguity. If the source is unambiguous and authoritative, resolution is clean.

⛓️

Decentralized Oracle (UMA MOOv2)

Polymarket (global/international markets)

Risk: MEDIUM

A proposer submits an outcome to a smart contract. If no eligible challenge escalates the proposal, it can finalize on-chain. If challenged, the dispute path can move to UMA governance for review.

Examples

Polymarket geopolitical/crypto markets
UMA-governed prediction markets worldwide

Transparent and auditable — but challenge mechanics can be difficult for retail traders, and token-holder governance introduces its own judgment and coordination risks.

🏛️

Internal Committee Review

Kalshi (all markets), ForecastEx (all markets), Polymarket US markets

Risk: VARIES

A team of human reviewers at the platform applies contractual criteria to available evidence and issues a ruling. No automated trigger — decisions involve human judgment. Some platforms have a board-level committee for high-stakes disputes.

Examples

Kalshi Operations Team for all markets
Kalshi Outcome Review Committee (board-level, rare)
ForecastEx contract specifications + rulebook

Speed and consistency depend on the platform's internal processes. Opaque to traders — Kalshi has no formal trader dispute mechanism.

What can go wrong at verification

All of the below have happened on real prediction markets. These aren't hypotheticals.

HIGH

The resolution source is ambiguous

Markets that resolve on 'major news organizations report' or 'generally accepted' language give the platform latitude. Without a single named source, interpretations diverge. Example: geopolitical markets where wire services report conflicting information.

MEDIUM

Single-source failure or delay

Weather markets on Kalshi resolve on a single NOAA station (ASOS/NOWData) as the primary source. Kalshi contract terms do name fallbacks — NCEI Climate Data Online, then the NWS Daily Climate Report — but data gaps can still delay resolution. Similarly, Polymarket crypto-touch markets use a single Binance 1-minute candle High.

HIGH

Oracle governance attack (Polymarket)

UMA's Decentralized Verification Mechanism (DVM) relies on UMA token holders voting correctly. Governance disputes can produce outcomes that traders disagree with, and challenge mechanics are not always practical for retail users.

HIGH

Platform invokes a carveout

A contract-specific carveout can change how a market resolves when an edge case occurs. Traders may expect the headline question to control, but the resolution criteria are what matter. Always read the resolution criteria — not just the market title.

If you disagree with a resolution: read the resolution criteria first (most surprises are contract-language, not platform error), then see what happens when a market resolves wrong for your recourse by platform, or the live resolution dispute audit.