Interactive Brokers ForecastEx Overview
Interactive Brokers runs its own CFTC-regulated prediction market exchange — ForecastEx — one of the few publicly traded brokerages to own a designated contract market for event contracts. Here's what you need to know before trading.
Commission (ForecastEx)
$0
Listed instruments (Q4 2025)
10,000+ listed instruments
Exchange Launch
Aug 2024
Per-contract payout
$1.00
Our Take
IBKR's ForecastEx is the lowest-cost CFTC-regulated prediction market exchange ($0.01/contract), with 10,000+ listed instruments and the only dual-exchange access (ForecastEx + CME Group). Best for institutional traders and existing IBKR customers. Retail users may prefer Kalshi or Polymarket instead.
Key Strengths
Lowest Per-Contract Fees
Cheapest per-contract costs in the industry. ForecastEx charges just $0.01/contract (built into price) — no separate commission. In plain English: less than a penny per contract, making it the cheapest option among CFTC-regulated exchanges.
Only Dual-Exchange Platform
Only platform offering BOTH ForecastEx + CME Group contracts; institutional-grade in a single account.
CFTC-Regulated Exchange
ForecastEx LLC received CFTC designations to operate a contract market and derivative clearing organization. ForecastEx is its own DCM and DCO — not a partner exchange.
Institutional-Grade Infrastructure
FIX API access, multi-asset integration (stocks, bonds, futures, FX, crypto + event contracts), and segregated funds in the same account.
Interest-Like Coupon on Positions
ForecastEx pays a 3.14% APY incentive coupon on open positions, accruing daily and paid monthly. Encourages longer-duration contract holding.
10,000+ Instruments
10,000+ listed instruments as of Q4 2025 — the broadest contract catalogue of any CFTC-regulated exchange.
Key Considerations
Complex Interface for Retail
IBKR's trading platform is built for experienced traders. Newer users may find the interface overwhelming compared to Kalshi or Polymarket.
Requires Full IBKR Account
You must open a full Interactive Brokers brokerage account to access ForecastTrader. No standalone prediction market app.
Lower Volume vs. Kalshi
As of Q4 2025, ForecastEx volume was under 1% of Kalshi's trading volume, per Business Insider (Feb 2, 2026). Niche markets may have limited liquidity.
No Dedicated Mobile App
Prediction markets are accessible via the IBKR mobile app, but there is no standalone ForecastTrader mobile experience.
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What is ForecastEx?
CFTC-regulated exchange owned by Interactive Brokers
ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' wholly-owned prediction market exchange. Interactive Brokers announced in June 2024 that operations were scheduled to begin on Announced June 25, 2024; originally scheduled for July 8, 2024; actual launch August 1, 2024 (delayed due to administrative issues), though later reporting said the launch was delayed before going live later that summer. Unlike Robinhood or Webull — which distribute another exchange's contracts — IBKR built and owns its own ForecastEx LLC received CFTC designations to operate a contract market and derivative clearing organization.
If you are here because an IBKR or ForecastEx tax statement looks wrong, skip the broader platform tour and read our ForecastEx 1099 reconciliation explainer. That page is built for the exact gross-proceeds-versus-net-P&L panic this guide does not try to solve line by line.
On ForecastEx, traders buy "Yes" or "No" contracts on whether a specific outcome will occur. There are no sellers — only buyers bidding Yes or No. When the Yes bid and No bid sum to $1.01, the exchange matches them: both sides pay their bid price, and whichever side is correct at settlement receives $1.00. The $0.01 difference is the exchange fee.
In plain English: The cheapest option — less than a penny per contract on their own ForecastEx exchange. For CME Group contracts, it costs 25 cents per contract ($0.10 commission + $0.15 exchange fee), but those contracts pay $100 instead of $1.
ForecastEx is a CFTC-designated DCM (Designated Contract Market) and DCO (Derivatives Clearing Organization). It operates as its own exchange and clearinghouse — not a partner of Kalshi or any other exchange. IBKR is both the broker and the exchange operator.
Contract Types: $1 vs $100 Payout
ForecastEx vs CME Group contract structures
IBKR's ForecastTrader is unique in offering two fundamentally different contract structures from two exchanges. Understanding the difference matters for fee calculations and position sizing.
ForecastEx Contracts
- Payout per contract
- $1.00
- Price increment
- $0.01
- Commission
- $0
- Exchange fee
- $0.01 (built into price)
- Fee for $100 payout
- $1.00 (100 contracts × $0.01)
- Markets
- Politics, economics, climate
CME Group Contracts
- Payout per contract
- $100.00
- Price increment
- $1.00
- Commission
- $0.10/contract commission
- Exchange fee
- $0.15 exchange fee
- Fee for $100 payout
- $0.25 (1 contract × $0.25)
- Markets
- Futures markets, economic indicators
Which is cheaper?
For a $100 equivalent payout: ForecastEx costs $1.00 (100 contracts × $0.01); CME costs $0.25 (1 contract × $0.25). CME is actually cheaper per equivalent dollar of payout. But ForecastEx has finer granularity — you can take a $0.50 position instead of a $50 position, making it more accessible for smaller traders.
In plain English: ForecastEx is the cheapest way to make small bets — less than a penny per contract. CME contracts cost more upfront ($0.10 commission + $0.15 exchange fee) but pay out $100 instead of $1, so for bigger positions they can actually be a better deal per dollar.
Fee Breakdown
Per-contract costs across exchanges
$0 commission; $0.01/contract exchange fee built into price for ForecastEx contracts. For CME Group contracts: $0.10/contract commission + $0.15 exchange fee.
In plain English: The cheapest option — less than a penny per contract on their own ForecastEx exchange. For CME Group contracts, it costs 25 cents per contract ($0.10 commission + $0.15 exchange fee), but those contracts pay $100 instead of $1.
| Platform | Fee Type | Per Contract | $100 Equivalent |
|---|---|---|---|
| IBKR ForecastEx | Exchange fee (built-in) | $0.01 | $1.00 (100 contracts) |
| IBKR CME Group | Commission + exchange | $0.25 | $0.25 (1 contract) |
| Kalshi | Formula-based taker fee on entry | ≤1.75¢ | ≤$1.75 (100 contracts, entry only (sell/exit is free)) |
| Robinhood | Commission + exchange | $0.02/contract ($0.01 RH + $0.01 Kalshi) | $2.00 (100 contracts) |
| Webull | Exchange fee (Kalshi) | $0 commission on sports; exchange fees apply. Total ~$0.02/contract | ~$2.00 (100 contracts) |
| Polymarket | Probability-based taker fees across most categories. Dynamic rates peak at 50% probability. | Sports 0.75% peak; Crypto 1.80% peak; Politics/Finance/Tech 1.00%; most fee-free at extremes | Varies by price |
In plain English: IBKR ForecastEx is the cheapest option on this list — less than a penny per contract. Kalshi and Robinhood cost roughly 2x more per contract. CME Group contracts through IBKR cost 25 cents each, but they pay out $100 instead of $1 — so they can be cheaper per dollar of payout.
ForecastEx pays a 3.14% APY incentive coupon on open positions, accruing daily and paid monthly. On longer-duration contracts, this meaningfully offsets the cost of holding. IBKR also pays interest on idle cash tied up in event contract collateral.
Market Categories
Four categories of event contracts
ForecastEx offers contracts across four broad categories, per Politics (incl. 2028 presidential), economics, climate/weather, financial markets.
Climate & Weather
Temperature contracts are the most-traded category, per Peterffy's Q4 2025 earnings call. Linked to electricity and natural gas hedging.
Politics
Elections (including 2028 presidential), legislative outcomes, approval ratings.
Economics
CPI prints, Fed rate decisions, GDP growth, nonfarm payrolls, retail sales.
Financial Markets
S&P 500 milestones, crypto prices, index levels, earnings outcomes.
Weather Contracts: The Unexpected Leader
Temperature contracts and institutional hedging
Most-traded category — temperature contracts linked to electricity/natural gas.
"Our most frequently traded contracts are temperature contracts. We are currently working on tying up these temperature contracts with the electricity contracts and the natural gas contracts."— Thomas Peterffy, Founder & Chairman, Interactive Brokers Q4 2025 Earnings Call (January 21, 2026)
Peterffy made the comment during the Q4 2025 earnings call while discussing institutional adoption of prediction markets. The focus on temperature contracts is deliberate: utilities need to forecast daily electricity demand, which is highly sensitive to temperature. ForecastEx is positioning weather prediction markets as a hedge instrument for power companies — not just a speculative product.
Peterffy said on the Q4 2025 call: "I think that sometime in the course of the year, you will see them onboarding." Utilities have not yet formally entered the market in large numbers as of early 2026.
Volume & Scale (Q4 2025)
Quarterly metrics from IBKR earnings
These figures are from the Q4 2025 earnings call (January 21, 2026) and reflect a point-in-time snapshot — not current numbers.
Context: The 19x quarter-over-quarter volume increase (15M → 286M pairs) was attributed largely to the 2024 U.S. presidential election cycle and subsequent expansion in market categories. These figures were reported by Nancy Stuebe, Director of Investor Relations, on the Q4 2025 earnings call.
Institutional Features
API access, prime brokerage, and multi-asset
IBKR is the only major prediction market platform built for institutional and professional traders from the ground up. Event contracts exist alongside equities, futures, FX, and fixed income in a single unified account.
FIX API & TWS API
IBKR offers FIX API and Trader Workstation (TWS) API for algorithmic and programmatic access to event contracts, the same interfaces used for equity and futures trading.
Multi-Asset Integration
Trade event contracts alongside stocks, bonds, futures, FX, and crypto in one account. This is unique among prediction market platforms — Kalshi and Polymarket are standalone.
Prime Brokerage Access
IBKR's prime brokerage unit supports hedge fund clients. Event contracts are available within this institutional framework, not just retail accounts.
CME Group Contracts
IBKR is the only retail platform offering CME Group event contracts ($100 payout per contract) alongside ForecastEx contracts ($1 payout). CME contracts cater to larger position sizes.
Lumina Markets: What We Know
Peterffy-backed stealth startup
Stealth prediction market startup backed by Peterffy, preparing to launch.
A February 2, 2026 Business Insider investigation found that Lumina Markets — a new prediction market startup with the tagline "Future, priced" — shares staff and a registered address with Interactive Brokers. Job listings described it as "backed by a billionaire pioneer of electronic trading." Corporate filings show it was incorporated by an IBKR in-house lawyer; its CEO is another attorney who has worked with IBKR and Peterffy.
As of publication, neither Interactive Brokers nor Thomas Peterffy has publicly confirmed any involvement with Lumina Markets. Representatives did not respond to Business Insider's inquiries. What remains unclear: how Lumina would differentiate from ForecastEx.
We'll update this section as more information becomes available.
Who Should Use Interactive Brokers?
Platform fit assessment
Great for
- • Existing IBKR customers who want event contracts alongside equities
- • Algorithmic traders needing API access
- • Institutions hedging weather or economic exposure
- • Anyone trading CME Group event contracts
- • Cost-conscious traders (lowest per-contract fees)
Consider if
- • You're comfortable with professional trading interfaces
- • You want multi-asset account management
- • You're interested in long-duration contracts (years out)
Look elsewhere if
- • You want a simple mobile-first experience (try Kalshi)
- • You need maximum market breadth and liquidity (try Kalshi or Polymarket)
- • You're a first-time prediction market trader
Platform Comparison
Side-by-side with Kalshi, Polymarket, and more
All data from our platform database.
| Platform | Regulation | Fee (per contract) | Market Types | Best For |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Interactive Brokers ForecastEx | CFTC DCM (ForecastEx) | $0.01 (ForecastEx) | Politics (incl. 2028 presidential), economics, climate/weather, financial markets | Institutional, multi-asset |
| Kalshi | CFTC DCM + DCO | ≤1.75¢ (formula-based) | Politics, economics, weather, finance | Best liquidity, broadest markets |
| Polymarket | CFTC DCM (via QCX LLC) | Sports 0.75% peak; Crypto 1.80% peak; Politics/Finance/Tech 1.00%; most fee-free at extremes | Sports only for US users (NFL, NBA, NHL, MLB, college, soccer, UFC) via QCX LLC DCM as of March 2026. Global Polymarket (non-US) covers a much broader range including election, news, and financial markets. | Global liquidity, crypto users |
| Robinhood | CFTC FCM + Rothera DCM pending | $0.02/contract ($0.01 RH + $0.01 Kalshi) | Politics, sports, economics, crypto, culture, climate, companies, financials, tech & science, health, world | Mobile-first, existing users |
| Webull | Via Kalshi (CFTC DCM) | $0 commission on sports; exchange fees apply. Total ~$0.02/contract | Sports, economic indicators (Fed), crypto hourlies (BTC/ETH), S&P 500/NASDAQ hourlies | Traders, hourlies |
In plain English: IBKR ForecastEx has the lowest per-contract fee at just $0.01 — less than a penny. Kalshi and Robinhood charge roughly double that. Polymarket's fees vary by price. If you want the cheapest way to trade event contracts, ForecastEx wins on per-contract cost.
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