Underdog Predictions: Complete Guide
The first major DFS platform to build a full CFTC-regulated prediction market stack — powered by the Aristotle Exchange acquisition.
Regulation
CFTC FCM + DCM/DCO
State Availability
32 states + DC
Primary Focus
Sports
Exchange Owned
Aristotle DCM/DCO
FCM Approved
Jan 2026
Founded
2020
Per-Contract Fee
$0.02
Min Deposit
$10
Our Take
Underdog is the most credentialed sports-focused prediction market platform in the US, having acquired Aristotle Exchange's full DCM + DCO stack in March 2026. Its DFS heritage gives it deep sports market intuition, but prediction markets integration is still maturing. Best for sports traders who want a CFTC-regulated alternative to Kalshi with sports DNA. Not yet right for politics, economics, or non-sports markets.
Key Strengths
Full exchange stack ownership
Underdog owns its own CFTC-licensed DCM and DCO outright — not a white-label or partnership. This gives it infrastructure independence no other sports platform has.
Deep sports market expertise
Built on years of DFS infrastructure. Sports data feeds, team/player models, and market design are native competencies — not retrofitted onto a financial platform.
Federal CFTC model
By operating under CFTC jurisdiction, Underdog bypasses the patchwork of state sports betting laws. 32 states + DC available vs. the 5–20 state availability of most sports betting operators.
First-mover DFS-to-PM conversion funnel
Existing DFS player base is a large and addressable audience already comfortable with sports contest markets. Underdog has the lowest conversion friction of any PM platform.
Key Considerations
Flat per-contract fee can add up
Underdog charges $0.02 per contract flat. At high volumes or on cheap contracts, this fee represents a higher percentage than Kalshi's formula-based fee. For $0.10 contracts, the $0.02 fee is a 20% overhead.
Sports-only at launch
No politics, economics, or weather markets as of early 2026. Traders who want breadth must also use Kalshi or Polymarket.
Arizona unavailable
A regulatory action removed Arizona from the available state list. AZ residents cannot use Underdog Predictions.
Exchange integration still maturing
Acquired Aristotle Exchange in March 2026 — the full product integration is ongoing. Expect some UX friction as the exchange and app are merged.
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Regulatory Architecture
Legal Framework
Underdog has one of the most comprehensive regulatory footprints in sports prediction markets, combining FCM status with full exchange ownership. To understand how CFTC oversight protects traders, see our prediction markets explainer.
UDM LLC registered as a CFTC Futures Commission Merchant (FCM) on January 9, 2026. FCM status allows Underdog to hold customer funds and submit trades to a licensed exchange on behalf of users.
Acquired Aristotle Exchange DCM, Inc. and Aristotle Exchange DCO, Inc. on March 9, 2026. This is the full exchange and clearing stack — Underdog now operates its own CFTC-licensed trading venue, not just an FCM front-end.
Important: PredictIt is separate
PredictIt was NOT part of the Aristotle Exchange acquisition. PredictIt continues to operate independently under its own CFTC no-action letter. Underdog acquired the exchange infrastructure only, not the PredictIt brand or user base.
Market Categories
Available Markets
Underdog's market focus reflects its DFS origins — sports first, with potential expansion as the exchange integration matures.
NFL
Game outcomes, totals, spreads — core DFS audience
NBA & NCAA Basketball
Regular season and playoff event contracts
MLB
Game-level and season milestone markets
NHL
Game outcomes and series markets
Soccer / MLS
US and international event markets
Politics / Economics
Not available — sports only at launch
The DFS-to-Prediction-Markets Pivot
Business Evolution
Underdog's path to prediction markets is the most aggressive of any DFS platform — not a partnership, but direct exchange ownership.
Founded in Brooklyn, NY by Jeremy Levine, Brandon Stakenborg, and Trevor John. Starts as a DFS platform focused on best-ball draft contests.
Underdog begins offering prediction markets through Crypto.com Derivatives North America (CDNA) while pursuing FCM registration.
CFTC approves Underdog as a Futures Commission Merchant — allowing it to hold customer funds and submit trades independently.
Underdog acquires Aristotle Exchange DCM, Inc. and Aristotle Exchange DCO, Inc. — gaining a full CFTC-licensed exchange and clearing stack. PredictIt not included.
State Availability
Geographic Access
By operating under CFTC federal jurisdiction rather than state gaming licenses, Underdog achieves broader geographic reach than state-licensed sports betting operators. Use our state checker to confirm your state's access.
~31
States Available
As of April 2026
AZ
Excluded (reg action)
Arizona regulatory action
Federal
CFTC Jurisdiction
Not state gaming law
Fee Structure
Cost Structure
Underdog charges a flat $0.02 per contract, built into the entry price you see on screen. Example: 5 contracts at $0.70 = $3.50 + $0.10 fee = $3.60 total. Withdrawals are free. Deposits accepted via debit card, Apple Pay (debit-linked only), and Trustly. See the full fee comparison for how platforms stack up.
| Fee Type | Underdog | Kalshi | FanDuel |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trading Fee | $0.02/contract (flat) | Formula-based taker fee on entry | 2% of payout |
| Withdrawal Fee | Free | None | None |
| Deposit Fee | None | None | None |
| Position Cap | None stated | None | None stated |
Fee data sourced from official platform documentation. Verify current rates at the official Underdog website before trading.
Who Should Use Underdog Predictions?
Target Audience
DFS veterans
Strong fitAlready familiar with Underdog's app and sports data. Prediction markets are the next natural step — lower overhead than DFS lineups.
Sports event traders
Strong fitUnderdog's sports market depth and sports-native UX give it an edge for game-level event contracts over financial-focused platforms like Kalshi.
Serious/quantitative traders
Use alongside KalshiFlat $0.02/contract fee and sports-only markets. Use Kalshi or Polymarket for politics and economics; Underdog for sports-specific depth.
Political/economics traders
Not the right platformUnderdog does not offer politics, economics, or entertainment markets as of early 2026. Use Kalshi or Polymarket for these categories.
Underdog vs. FanDuel vs. Kalshi
Competitive Analysis
For more detail on either competitor, see the FanDuel Predictions guide or the Kalshi guide.
| Feature | Underdog | FanDuel | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Regulation | FCM + owns DCM/DCO | Via CME Group partnership | CFTC DCM (licensed) |
| Exchange ownership | Owns Aristotle Exchange | Partners with CME/Plus500 | Kalshi is the exchange |
| Market focus | Sports only | Sports + some economics | Politics, economics, sports, weather |
| State availability | 32 states + DC | ~18 states | 45+ states |
| Trading fee | $0.02/contract (flat) | 2% of payout | 7% × P × (1-P) formula |
| DFS heritage | Yes (core product) | Yes (DraftKings rival) | No — financial exchange |
| Position limits | None stated | None stated | None |
How to Sign Up
Getting Started
Download the Underdog app or visit their website
Available on iOS and Android. Existing DFS users can access prediction markets within the same account.
Create an account or log in
Standard identity verification (KYC) required. Full legal name, address, and date of birth needed. CFTC-regulated accounts require identity verification.
Verify your state eligibility
Confirm your state is on the ~31-state availability list. Arizona residents are not eligible.
Deposit funds
Deposit methods and minimums follow Underdog's current published schedule. Bank transfer and card methods expected.
Navigate to Predictions
Select prediction markets from the main navigation. Sports event contracts will be available based on current schedule.
Frequently Asked Questions
4 common questions answered
Related Resources
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