Prediction Market Settlement Disputes: How to Find the Evidence
When a prediction market resolves in a way you didn't expect, here's where to look — source documents, dispute processes, and resolution history for Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx, and PredictIt.
Platforms Covered
4
Known Cases
5
Source Categories
6
Read Time
10 min
Quick Summary
The key takeaway from this page
How to Audit a Prediction Market Settlement
Step-by-step investigation guide
When a market resolves unexpectedly, here's where to find the evidence — on every platform. This page gives you the exact steps, source documents, and dispute channels for each CFTC-regulated platform.
Resolution Trust Overview
Platform trust scores at a glance
Elevated Dispute Risk — known mention-market controversy, single-source weather/crypto
Oracle-based (UMA) — transparent dispute mechanism, verifiable on-chain
Low Dispute History — IBKR-backed, institutional standards
Transparent — long track record, detailed public ruleset
How Settlements Work — 3-Step Mental Model
Trigger → Evidence → Outcome
TRIGGER
Event occurs or market deadline expires
EVIDENCE
Platform collects data from the named resolution source
OUTCOME
Resolution is posted — dispute window opens
By Platform — Audit Guide
Platform-specific dispute steps
Resolution Authority
Kalshi Operations Team (CFTC DCM)
Dispute Window
Dispute window: see Kalshi platform rules. Typically a short window post-resolution — check your contract's resolution criteria tab for exact timing.
Where to Find Evidence
- 1
Market Rules tab → Resolution Criteria
Every Kalshi market has a Rules tab. Open the market and click Rules to see the exact resolution source named.
Open - 2
Resolution Notice
After settlement, Kalshi emails traders with a resolution notice. Check your Kalshi-linked inbox.
Open - 3
CFTC Public Record
As a registered DCM, Kalshi submits annual compliance filings. Long-form, but available as public record.
Open - 4
Official Support
If the in-app dispute flow does not resolve the issue, contact the platform's official support channel and keep a copy of the contract rules plus your evidence URL.
Open
Dispute Process
- •Submit within the dispute window via the in-app dispute flow on the settled market
- •Include: the contract rules text, the evidence URL you found, and a clear description of the discrepancy
- •Escalation path: CFTC complaint form at cftc.gov/forms if the platform dispute is denied
Known Dispute Cases
- See detailsKhamenei Health Market (2025)
Market resolved based on Kalshi Operations team judgment on a single media source. Traders disputed whether the named source was sufficient under contract rules.
2025 - See detailsTrump Mention Market (2026, ongoing)
Market reportedly remained open while resolution criteria were already known internally. See r/Kalshi for ongoing community discussion. Neutral framing: no independent resolution of the dispute.
2026 - Coinbase Balance Dispute (2025)
Market resolution tied to Coinbase Pro balance figures. Traders questioned whether the exchange price used matched the published resolution criteria exactly.
2025
Resolution Source Comparison by Category
Where each platform gets its data
| Category | Kalshi Source | Polymarket Source | Match? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | Official league/governing body | UMA oracle / Official league | ✅ Usually aligned |
| Politics | AP race call or official canvass | AP or official government declaration | ✅ Often aligned |
| Weather | NOAA ASOS station (single station) | Varies by market (Weather.com, other) | ⚠️ DIFFERS — check each market |
| Crypto | CF Benchmarks RTI (60-second avg) | Varies: Chainlink feed (BTC up/down) or Binance 1m High (BTC price touch) | ⚠️ DIFFERS — verify per-market before trading |
| Mention Markets | Kalshi Ops review of named transcript | Varies / UMA operator | ⚠️ SUBJECTIVE — human judgment |
Source data derived from platform resolution rules documentation. Verify per-market before trading — individual markets may differ from category defaults. Check fee comparison and state availability before opening a position.
"Did X say Y?" markets depend on: which transcript is used, which timestamp, which speaker attribution, and whether paraphrase counts as a mention. Platforms can disagree on all four — and often do. Kalshi Operations resolves these via a single human reviewer with no automatic fallback. For a full breakdown of oracle types, see the oracle transparency guide.
See ContractSettlementComparePage for cross-platform settlement rule differencesFrequently Asked Questions
6 common questions answered
Related Resources
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