Prediction Market Settlement Rules Compared: Kalshi vs Polymarket vs Robinhood (2026)
How Kalshi, Polymarket, and Robinhood actually settle contracts — different sources, different timing, different dispute processes.
Platforms
3
Categories
6+
Updated
Apr 2026
Focus
Settlement
Quick Summary
The key takeaway from this page
Why Settlement Rules Matter More Than Price
Understanding resolution differences
A Kalshi Fed rate market at 74¢ and a Polymarket Fed rate market at 68¢ might not be mispricing the same event — they might be resolving different conditions.
- Different resolution sources — Kalshi uses official government data; Polymarket uses UMA oracle + admin review
- Different timing — Kalshi can resolve same-night on AP call; Polymarket runs a 2-hour UMA challenge window (then 48–96h DVM vote if disputed)
- Different dispute paths — Kalshi via CFTC-supervised support; Polymarket via decentralized token-holder vote
For a deeper dive on how resolution works across all platforms, see How Markets Settle →
How Each Platform Settles Contracts
Resolution mechanics compared
Select a market category to see resolution source, rule, timing, and dispute path side by side.
| Feature | Kalshi | Polymarket | Robinhood |
|---|---|---|---|
| Resolution source | Official government sources (AP, official canvass) | AP or official government declaration | Powered by Kalshi — same rules apply |
| Resolution rule | Resolves based on AP race call or official certified result, whichever comes first. | Resolves based on AP call or official declaration. Admin review committee handles edge cases. | Powered by Kalshi — same rules apply |
| Settlement timing | Can resolve same-night on AP race call — often fastest for elections. | UMA oracle resolution can take 24–72h; admin review possible in disputed outcomes. | Same as Kalshi |
| Who resolves | Kalshi resolves by its listed rules and source agencies under CFTC-regulated exchange oversight | Polymarket resolves by the market’s published rules; many contracts use oracle-based resolution with a challenge step | Same as the underlying partner market |
| Dispute path | Support-driven review under the exchange’s rules | Rule-specific challenge / dispute path depending on the market setup | Via Robinhood support, then routed through the underlying market infrastructure |
| Known edge cases | AP race call can trigger resolution before official certification — capital releases faster but outcome is not yet certified. | UMA review can take 24–72h for contested outcomes; admin committee handles recounts or candidate withdrawal. | Inherits Kalshi edge cases — same resolution timing and risks. |
Data from resolution_sources.json v1.1.0. Always verify against the specific contract page before trading.
Platform-by-Platform: How Resolution Actually Works
Deep dive into each platform
The 3 Differences That Actually Matter
Critical settlement distinctions
1. Resolution Speed
Kalshi settles political markets same-night on AP call. Polymarket runs a 2-hour UMA challenge window (48–96h DVM vote if disputed). For fast-resolving events, Kalshi releases capital significantly faster — important if you're sizing large or want to redeploy quickly.
2. Dispute Process
Kalshi disputes go to an internal committee under CFTC oversight. Polymarket disputes go to decentralized UMA token-holder vote. Neither is faster for contested outcomes — Kalshi is more centralized; Polymarket is more transparent but slower.
3. Contract Wording
Even for the same event, Kalshi and Polymarket write different resolution criteria. A price gap between platforms may reflect real differences in what resolves the contract — not a pure arbitrage. Always compare the contract wording before assuming you found edge.
Settlement Rules in Action: What Traders Actually Need to Check
Real-world resolution examples
Politics contracts
Political markets often look identical across platforms but can resolve off different triggers: an AP call, an official certification, or a platform-specific determination rule. Kalshi explicitly tells traders to rely on each market's listed source agency and rules, not just the event headline.
Economic data contracts
Economic markets usually resolve to the designated official release named in the contract rules. On both regulated exchanges and crypto-native venues, the exact publication named in the rules matters more than a trader's general expectation about the event.
Crypto and weather contracts
Crypto and weather contracts are the clearest example of source risk. Kalshi crypto contracts settle to CF Benchmarks RTI averages, not a retail chart. Weather contracts can depend on a specific station, not a citywide app reading. Polymarket similarly names a precise Binance candle or named weather source in the rules.
Before You Trade: Settlement Due Diligence Checklist
Pre-trade verification steps
- 1Always read the full contract page before trading — not just the market title
- 2Look for the resolution source (NOAA? AP? UMA?) and confirm it's the source you expect
- 3Check settlement timing — will your capital be locked until event + dispute window closes?
- 4For large positions, search for a dispute history on similar contracts from the same platform
- 5For weather markets: find the exact NOAA station listed in the contract — not your city, the station
- 6For political markets: note whether resolution triggers on AP call or official certified result
Frequently Asked Questions
6 common questions answered
Related Resources
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