What the filing actually says
- Stake in Polymarket: confirmed on the filing.
- Dollar value disclosed: No — Warsh invoked pre-existing confidentiality agreements that prevented him from specifying the size or, in some cases, the identity of certain holdings. The Polymarket stake is among these.
- Divestiture pledge: Kevin Warsh wrote in the filing: “I will divest this asset if confirmed.”
- OGE certifying officer's note: “Once the filer divests these assets, he will be in compliance with the Ethics in Government Act.” — Heather A. Jones, OGE certifying official.
Why the public doesn't know the size
Warsh invoked pre-existing confidentiality agreements that prevented him from specifying the size or, in some cases, the identity of certain holdings. The Polymarket stake is among these. For industry context on why a private-company Polymarket stake is structurally hard to value against public benchmarks, see our prediction market industry valuations scoreboard. Under 5 CFR Part 2634, nominees report most asset values in broad ranges rather than exact dollar figures, and some shielded-vehicle line items can omit the value entirely. The two largest single line items on this filing — both Juggernaut Fund LP investments — are each reported as “greater than $50 million,” with the underlying holdings not itemized. The Polymarket line sits in the same confidentiality-shielded pathway.
Timeline
- 1February 25, 2026Warsh electronically signs OGE Form 278e in Integrity.gov
- 2April 10, 2026OGE certifies the filing (Jones, certifying official; Croston, ethics official)
- 3April 14, 2026Filing publicly posted to OGE disclosure database; AP and other outlets report
- 4April 16, 2026AP wire: Warren urges fuller disclosure
- 5April 21, 2026Scheduled Senate Banking Committee confirmation hearing
- 6May 15, 2026Powell's term as Fed Chair ends
What Federal Reserve ethics rules require
Formalized Federal Reserve investment and trading rules that sharply limit what Fed officials and their immediate families can hold and how they can manage their investments. Adopted in response to the 2021 Federal Reserve trading controversy involving regional bank presidents Robert Kaplan and Eric Rosengren.
The rules apply post-confirmation. Pre-existing holdings must be disclosed in the nominee report and divested under the OGE-approved ethics agreement. The Polymarket stake falls under this pathway.
The primary-source rule text is published on federalreserve.gov: Federal Reserve press release (Feb 18, 2022).
What divestiture actually looks like for a private-company stake
Polymarket is a privately held company. That changes the divestiture path compared to a public stock. Below is the mechanical pathway, not a prediction about this specific timetable.
- Public stocks
- Sell on the open market
- Private-company equity (Polymarket)
- Requires a buyer, secondary transaction, or company repurchase
- Ethics agreement window
- OGE-approved ethics agreements can set a divestiture window, typically within 90 days of confirmation
- Capital-gains tax treatment
- Certificate of divestiture under 26 U.S.C. § 1043 can defer capital-gains tax when divestiture is required by an ethics agreement
- Public record
- A post-confirmation divestiture letter is typically filed with OGE and becomes part of the public record
Context: what other holdings Kevin Warsh disclosed
The Polymarket stake is one of many private-market positions in the filing. A partial neutral snapshot — reported in OGE ranges, not exact figures:
- • Juggernaut Fund LP — investment 1: Greater than $50 million
- • Juggernaut Fund LP — investment 2: Greater than $50 million
- • Duquesne Family Office LLC (Stanley Druckenmiller): $10,200,000
- • GoldenTree Asset Management LP: $1,550,000
- • Cerberus Capital Management: $750,000
- • Heitman LLC: $650,000
On the record
“Once the filer divests these assets, he will be in compliance with the Ethics in Government Act.”
“I will divest this asset if confirmed.”
“This is a real problem. No one has gone forward in the Trump administration without disclosing fully their financial holdings.”
What about Kalshi, PredictIt, or other prediction market platforms?
• No Kalshi stake disclosed in the Warsh filing.
• No PredictIt stake disclosed in the Warsh filing.
• No other prediction-market platform stake disclosed in the Warsh filing.
Absence of disclosure reflects what is on the public 278e as of 2026-04-14. Confidentiality-shielded funds (Juggernaut Fund LP, THSDFS LLC holdings) may contain undisclosed positions per OGE rules.
Frequently asked questions
Related reading
Source transparency
Primary source: OGE Form 278e Nominee Report (OGE Form 278e (extapps2.oge.gov))
- • Associated Press — AP wire syndication, Rugaber/Cappelletti
- • NBC News / Reuters — Reuters Howard Schneider, carried by NBC
- • Fortune — Jacqueline Munis, $100M+ disclosure summary
Editorial note: this page renders from a primary-source-gated data file; several URL and quote fields are pending primary-source verification before the next content review. Secondary journalism and crypto-blog syndications are excluded from citation by editorial policy. Last updated: April 17, 2026.