Prediction Market Institutional-Data-Distribution Map
Where Kalshi, Polymarket, and CDNA signal flows into TradFi — exclusive wholesale vs. open multi-partner models, with a primary source on every row.
What this page tracks
A neutral, source-linked map of how prediction-market data reaches institutional and retail-research customers. It does not rank platforms, does not recommend data products, and does not render live pricing. Every relationship links to a primary press release, SEC filing, or exchange announcement.
Methodology: Tracks documented channels through which prediction-market data reaches institutional and retail-research customers. Excludes sponsorship/marketing deals (tracked separately on /prediction-market-partnerships). Each row cites a primary press release, exchange announcement, or SEC filing. Rows without a verified primary source render as 'Primary-source verification pending' and are excluded from matrix totals.
Narrative context (added 2026-04-22)
Bloomberg has moved from a co-leader frame to a lead-reversal frame on prediction-market US volume. Piece: “Polymarket Loses Prediction-Market Lead After Delays, Blowback” (Annie Massa, Emily Nicolle, Isis Almeida, Katherine Doherty, 2026-04-22).
What this means for the page below: This page maps documented institutional-data-distribution relationships; it does not rank platforms on product quality. The Bloomberg piece frames Polymarket's ICE-exclusive wholesale path as having compounded product delays into a volume-lead reversal. No row on this page changes based on this observation; we flag the shift so readers reading the exclusive-wholesale-vs-open-multi-partner contrast understand the fresh narrative framing.
Corroborated by: Unchained (2026-04-23), Associated Press (2026-04-23)
Two structurally opposite playbooks
Kalshi
Open / multi-partner
Derived from the 8 documented relationships in rows[]; no exclusivity language found in any Kalshi press release as of 2026-04-21.
Polymarket
Exclusive wholesale (institutional-data layer only)
ICE press release (2026-03-27) uses 'exclusive' framing for the market-data distribution arrangement; Polymarket has separately shipped direct web/app access to retail.
CDNA (Crypto.com / Derivatives North America) is an infrastructure wholesaler to white-label partners and has not yet announced a direct institutional-data-distribution channel as of 2026-04-22.
The map
Filters
Institutional market-data distribution; redistribution via ICE Consolidated Feed and terminal/vendor channels.
Named SKU in the ICE Consolidated Feed product line.
Institutional research and risk-management input.
Co-branded institutional-grade research product; reports on individual markets, platform trends, and data-driven strategies. Reported as the first Kalshi data feed into a research provider with paying subscribers.
Prediction-market terminal integration (Bloomberg-class venue, institutional-grade).
On-record CEO statement that Schwab is 'taking a hard look' at prediction markets; explicit category-fence — would stay away from sports/pop-culture; focus on finance-event/long-term-wealth integration. No commercial commitment or product launch announced.
On-record CEO statement positioning Robinhood's prediction-market integration (powered by Kalshi infrastructure) as a long-horizon retail-investing product complement to retirement accounts. Forbes Advisor (Apr 2) corroborates 3.4B prediction-market contracts in January 2026 alone via Robinhood's Kalshi-powered access.
Public signaling of Polymarket-related activity; awaiting a direct primary-source filing or statement.
Cleared-derivatives solution with Kalshi; institutional-grade clearing infrastructure.
Institutional OTC access to prediction markets; large-position execution off-book.
Three-leg sports-streamer integration: (1) Jan 20, 2026 Polymarket broadcast data embed + CFTC intent; (2) Apr 13, 2026 ADI Predictstreet FIFA World Cup 2026 multi-event product partnership (GlobeNewswire); (3) Apr 21, 2026 Sports Marketing 1 LLC (DAZN-affiliated UK entity) NFA Introducing Broker membership application. Own-IB filing pending approval; FCM plans from Jan 20 announcement unchanged.
Investors that are not distribution partners
Strategic investment and partnership to expand institutional access to prediction markets.
Investor relationship ≠ data-distribution channel; rendered as a footer row, not in the main matrix.
Channel glossary
A single distribution partner that holds exclusive rights to redistribute a platform's market data to institutional customers (terminal, vendor, or feed).
An institutional asset manager or research firm that uses a platform's data internally as a research or risk-management input, without redistribution.
A third-party research product that packages a platform's data into published research notes sold on a paid-subscription basis.
A professional financial terminal that surfaces prediction-market prices and signals alongside equities, fixed income, and derivatives.
A productized feed of derived signals (sentiment, probabilities, sector aggregates) sold as a named SKU by a market-data vendor.
Documented instances where a publicly traded TradFi firm cited prediction-market data during an earnings call or shareholder letter.
An FCM or cleared-derivatives solution provider that builds institutional plumbing on top of a platform's DCM.
A market-maker or prime-broker-style channel that lets institutional traders execute large positions off-book with a single counterparty.
What the split means
Exclusive ≠ better
Partnerships are not a quality ranking
Why this matters to you
FAQ
Our policy on this page
- We do not rank platforms on this page.
- We do not recommend any data product, feed, terminal, or research tier.
- We do not render live pricing.
- We do not treat 'exclusive wholesale' and 'open multi-partner' as moral or quality verdicts. Both are observable product decisions.
- We do not describe any relationship that has not been verified against a primary source. Pending rows render 'Primary-source verification pending' and are excluded from the filterable grid.
- We do not reproduce subscriber-gated research content (ProCap Insights, ARK research notes, ICE feed content).
- We do not name individuals except where the individual's name appears in a primary-source press release or SEC filing.
- We do not use the words 'fraud,' 'unethical,' or 'conflict' except where a primary source uses that word.
- When a Tier-1 outlet (Reuters / Bloomberg / WSJ / NYT / FT) publishes a named narrative-frame shift that affects the reader context of this page, we record the shift in narrativeShifts[] and render a neutral Narrative-Context callout. We do not rewrite rows to match the new frame. Rows change only on primary-source evidence.
Corrections & update log
- 2026-04-21Page created. Seeded with 9 documented channel rows + 1 investors-not-distributors footer row. 6 rows require primary-source verification before matrix rendering.
- 2026-04-26Enriched kalshi-schwab-earnings → schwab-wurster-prediction-markets-2026-04-16 (Bloomberg Apr 16 primary, 'hard look' + 'stay away from sports' verbatim pending; platform reclassified industry-cross). Added robinhood-tenev-retirement-positioning-2026-04-14 (CNBC Apr 14 + Forbes Advisor 3.4B Jan-26 contract volume corroboration). Both rows initialize earnings-call directional-indicator pattern under existing tradfi_earnings_references channel.
Primary sources
We block 30 competitor / affiliate-farm domains from being cited on this page. If an aggregator packages a primary-source announcement we track, we link the primary source directly.