Beta
    Tracker · Updated 2026-04-24
    18 funds
    3 issuers
    SEC status: none approved
    Ticker disclosure pending on some filings

    18 Prediction Market ETFs Have Been Filed With the SEC. None Are Approved Yet. Here's the Full Matrix.

    3 issuers · 18 funds · standard SEC review windows run 60–75 days from initial filing

    What this tracker is

    • A primary-source-first matrix of every publicly filed SEC S-1 (or amendment) for an ETF wrapping CFTC-regulated binary event contracts.
    • Not a buy/sell recommendation. Not financial advice. Not a forecast of how the SEC will rule.
    • Updated whenever any filing is amended, withdrawn, or the SEC issues a decision. Status changes are appended; historical row fields are never rewritten.

    Our policy on this tracker

    Every claim on this page is backed by either an SEC EDGAR filing, a Tier-1 financial press source (Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ, FT, NYT), or an issuer's own press release. We re-fetch primary sources every session.

    1. Do NOT predict whether the SEC will approve or reject any filing. We report filing status — readers draw their own conclusions.
    2. Do NOT recommend any ETF. No 'best,' 'top,' 'you should buy,' or any direction language.
    3. Do NOT name specific Designated Contract Markets as source venues unless the prospectus explicitly names them.
    4. Do NOT reprint the 'lose substantially all' language without attribution to the specific prospectus.
    5. Do NOT compare ETF wrappers to direct prediction-market accounts as better/worse — describe mechanics, not preference.
    6. Do NOT cite crypto-press or affiliate-farm wrappers as primary sources. Only SEC EDGAR filings, Bloomberg/Reuters/WSJ/FT/NYT/Economist, and each issuer's own press release page.
    7. Do NOT link to brokerage sign-up flows or ETF ticker trading pages.
    8. If SEC approval status changes, append a `narrativeShifts[]` entry — NEVER rewrite historical row fields.
    9. If any issuer withdraws a filing, keep the row with status `withdrawn`, append a dated withdrawal source, NEVER delete.
    10. Tier-1 elite-press coverage (NYT, CNN, AP, Politico, CNBC) of this case/category is recorded in narrativeShifts[] as a separate field — NEVER baked into rows, factual claims, or timelines. Rows remain primary-source-anchored and immutable. corroboratingSources[] grows monotonically as further coverage lands; new narrativeShifts[] entries require a NEW frame, not reinforcement of an existing one.

    Issuer overview

    Roundhill Investments
    6 funds
    First filing
    2026-02-13
    Listing exchange
    NYSE Arca
    SEC EDGAR S-1 filing
    Pending
    Issuer press
    Pending
    Bloomberg — Isabelle Lee, Denitsa Tsekova
    Pending

    Roundhill Sports Betting & iGaming ETF (BETZ) — unrelated to this filing, cited only for issuer credibility

    Bitwise Asset Management
    Brand: PredictionShares
    6 funds
    First filing
    2026-02-17
    Listing exchange
    NYSE Arca
    Trust
    Bitwise Funds Trust
    SEC EDGAR S-1 filing
    Pending
    Issuer press
    Pending
    GraniteShares
    6 funds
    First filing
    2026-02-17
    Listing exchange
    TBD_PRIMARY_SOURCE
    SEC EDGAR S-1 filing
    Pending
    Issuer press
    Pending

    18-fund matrix

    Filter funds
    Showing 18 of 18 funds
    TickerIssuerRacePartyFiledStatusAfter settlement
    BLUPRoundhill Investments2028 US Presidential Democratic2026-02-13Filed · pending SEC reviewRolls to 2032 Presidential Democratic
    REDPRoundhill Investments2028 US Presidential Republican2026-02-13Filed · pending SEC reviewRolls to 2032 Presidential Republican
    BLUSRoundhill Investments2026 US Senate control Democratic2026-02-13Filed · pending SEC reviewRolls to 2028 Senate Democratic
    REDSRoundhill Investments2026 US Senate control Republican2026-02-13Filed · pending SEC reviewRolls to 2028 Senate Republican
    BLUHRoundhill Investments2026 US House control Democratic2026-02-13Filed · pending SEC reviewRolls to 2028 House Democratic
    REDHRoundhill Investments2026 US House control Republican2026-02-13Filed · pending SEC reviewRolls to 2028 House Republican
    Pending disclosureBitwise Asset Management2028 US Presidential Democratic2026-02-17Filed · ticker pendingTBD per prospectus — primary-source review
    Pending disclosureBitwise Asset Management2028 US Presidential Republican2026-02-17Filed · ticker pendingTBD per prospectus — primary-source review
    Pending disclosureBitwise Asset Management2026 US Senate control Democratic2026-02-17Filed · ticker pendingTBD per prospectus — primary-source review
    Pending disclosureBitwise Asset Management2026 US Senate control Republican2026-02-17Filed · ticker pendingTBD per prospectus — primary-source review
    Pending disclosureBitwise Asset Management2026 US House control Democratic2026-02-17Filed · ticker pendingTBD per prospectus — primary-source review
    Pending disclosureBitwise Asset Management2026 US House control Republican2026-02-17Filed · ticker pendingTBD per prospectus — primary-source review
    Pending disclosureGraniteShares2028 US Presidential Democratic2026-02-17Filed · ticker pendingTBD per prospectus — primary-source review
    Pending disclosureGraniteShares2028 US Presidential Republican2026-02-17Filed · ticker pendingTBD per prospectus — primary-source review
    Pending disclosureGraniteShares2026 US Senate control Democratic2026-02-17Filed · ticker pendingTBD per prospectus — primary-source review
    Pending disclosureGraniteShares2026 US Senate control Republican2026-02-17Filed · ticker pendingTBD per prospectus — primary-source review
    Pending disclosureGraniteShares2026 US House control Democratic2026-02-17Filed · ticker pendingTBD per prospectus — primary-source review
    Pending disclosureGraniteShares2026 US House control Republican2026-02-17Filed · ticker pendingTBD per prospectus — primary-source review

    Empty ticker rows reflect filings where the issuer has not yet disclosed a ticker symbol on the public S-1. Each row links back to the issuer's EDGAR filing index above.

    How the wrapper works

    4.1 Binary event contract settlement

    Binary event contract: pays $1.00 per contract if the predicted outcome occurs, $0.00 otherwise. Settlement is determined by the Designated Contract Market that lists the contract.

    4.2 Swap-agreement exposure vs direct contract holding

    Per S-1 filings, the funds gain exposure to event-contract outcomes through swap agreements that reference CFTC-regulated event contracts traded on Designated Contract Markets (DCMs). The funds do not represent direct, unwrapped ownership of individual event contracts in retail brokerage accounts.

    Concentration: Prospectuses contemplate at least 80% of net assets dedicated to instruments that provide exposure to the named event-contract category (verify per-filing — primary-source review).

    4.3 What happens when your side loses

    Each filing contains 'lose substantially all of its value' risk language tied to the binary settlement mechanic — verbatim attribution to the specific prospectus required before render.

    4.4 How the fund rolls to the next election cycle

    Roll mechanics are described per-prospectus in the "After settlement" column of the matrix above. Roundhill's S-1 contemplates rolling to the next-cycle race for the same chamber and party. Bitwise and GraniteShares roll mechanics are pending direct verification of the prospectus text.

    The sourcing-exchange question

    Filings describe exposure to 'CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Markets' as a category. Filings reviewed at this entry's filing date do not name a specific DCM. Both Kalshi (KalshiEX, LLC) and ForecastEx (ForecastEx LLC) are CFTC-registered DCMs eligible to host event contracts of the kind referenced; we do not speculate on which DCM any issuer will route through.

    Direct verification of every prospectus reviewed pending — exposure-venue claims will be re-asserted only after primary-source confirmation.

    SEC regulatory status

    As of this entry, the SEC has neither approved nor declined any of the 18 filings tracked here. Standard S-1 review windows run 60–75 days from initial filing; amendments restart the clock. Filing timeline: Roundhill 2026-02-13, Bitwise 2026-02-17, GraniteShares 2026-02-17. We update this tracker when status changes.

    • 2026-02-13·Roundhill Investments
    • 2026-02-17·Bitwise Asset Management
    • 2026-02-17·GraniteShares

    As of 2026-04-24. We update this section when status changes.

    Narrative context

    • Frame dated from 2026-04-24
      PM-as-registered-investment-product (the 4th tracker-axis frame research flagged Apr 24 PM evening) crosses from financial-press into mainstream cable-segment territory.
      Primary source
      CNBC (Morning Call segment) · Contessa Brewer · 2026-04-24
      Verbatim pending verification (etf-narrshift-001)

      Aired 14:04 UTC; published 15:25 UTC per research brief Apr 24 15:30.

      See source
      Corroborating coverage
      • Bloomberg — Lee + Tsekova (2026-02-17)
        Verbatim pending verification (etf-narrshift-002)

        Already appears in narrativeContextSeed; this entry promotes it to corroborating spine for the new mass-market frame.

        See source
      What this does NOT mean
      • It does NOT mean SEC has approved any of the 18 filed funds — review window remains 60-75 days from Feb 13-18 filings (Apr 14-29 decision window).
      • It does NOT mean PM ETFs are tradeable today — the tracker rows show filing status, not approval status.
      • It does NOT recommend any of the 18 funds — PM.US is reporting filings, not endorsing investment products.
      • It does NOT extend the frame to leveraged-crypto or sportsbook-alt categories — those remain distinct rows in the existing 4-axis taxonomy.

    What this tracker is NOT

    • Do NOT predict whether the SEC will approve or reject any filing. We report filing status — readers draw their own conclusions.
    • Do NOT recommend any ETF. No 'best,' 'top,' 'you should buy,' or any direction language.
    • Do NOT name specific Designated Contract Markets as source venues unless the prospectus explicitly names them.
    • Do NOT reprint the 'lose substantially all' language without attribution to the specific prospectus.
    • Do NOT compare ETF wrappers to direct prediction-market accounts as better/worse — describe mechanics, not preference.
    • Do NOT cite crypto-press or affiliate-farm wrappers as primary sources. Only SEC EDGAR filings, Bloomberg/Reuters/WSJ/FT/NYT/Economist, and each issuer's own press release page.
    • Do NOT link to brokerage sign-up flows or ETF ticker trading pages.
    • If SEC approval status changes, append a `narrativeShifts[]` entry — NEVER rewrite historical row fields.
    • If any issuer withdraws a filing, keep the row with status `withdrawn`, append a dated withdrawal source, NEVER delete.
    • Tier-1 elite-press coverage (NYT, CNN, AP, Politico, CNBC) of this case/category is recorded in narrativeShifts[] as a separate field — NEVER baked into rows, factual claims, or timelines. Rows remain primary-source-anchored and immutable. corroboratingSources[] grows monotonically as further coverage lands; new narrativeShifts[] entries require a NEW frame, not reinforcement of an existing one.

    Frequently asked questions

    Can I buy a prediction market ETF today?

    No. As of 2026-04-24, none of the 18 filings tracked here have been approved by the SEC, and none of the funds have begun trading. Standard S-1 review windows run 60–75 days from initial filing; amendments restart the clock.

    Who is Roundhill, Bitwise, and GraniteShares?

    Three independent ETF issuers. Roundhill Investments operates an existing ETF lineup including BETZ (Sports Betting & iGaming, unrelated to this filing). Bitwise Asset Management is filing under its 'PredictionShares' brand within the Bitwise Funds Trust. GraniteShares is a third independent issuer. None of the three are affiliated with Kalshi, Polymarket, or any specific DCM.

    What happens to my shares if my predicted side loses the election?

    Each prospectus contains 'lose substantially all of its value' risk language tied to the binary $1/$0 settlement mechanic. The funds describe rolling exposure to subsequent election cycles after settlement, but the specific roll mechanics vary by filing. Verify the exact roll language in the prospectus you are reading before drawing conclusions about any individual ticker.

    Is buying one of these ETFs the same as trading directly on Kalshi or Polymarket?

    No. The ETFs gain exposure through swap agreements referencing event contracts. Trading directly on Kalshi (a CFTC-registered DCM) means holding the event contract itself in a Kalshi account. The wrappers are different legal instruments held in different account types and settle through different mechanisms.

    Does this require a self-directed IRA?

    If approved, the funds would list as ETFs on a US national securities exchange (Roundhill and Bitwise filings name NYSE Arca; the GraniteShares listing exchange is pending direct verification). ETFs trading on a national exchange are eligible for standard taxable brokerage accounts, traditional IRAs, Roth IRAs, and self-directed IRAs subject to each broker's product availability. The 'self-directed IRA' framing arose in CNBC commentary and is not a unique requirement of these filings.

    Why did three issuers file within four days of each other?

    Roundhill filed 2026-02-13. Bitwise and GraniteShares both filed 2026-02-17. The clustering is a matter of public record; we do not characterize intent. Asset-manager product launches frequently cluster around regulatory windows or competitor filings.

    When will the SEC decide?

    Standard S-1 review windows run 60–75 days from initial filing; amendments restart the clock. From the 2026-02-13 Roundhill filing, the outer boundary of the 75-day window falls in late April 2026. Decisions can land any trading day, and the SEC may extend through requests for amendment. We update this tracker when status changes.

    How does this tracker stay accurate?

    We re-fetch SEC EDGAR primary URLs every session before any row edit, daily through Apr 29, and weekly thereafter. Issuer press pages carry non-zero silent-revision risk and are re-verified the same day. Status changes are recorded as narrativeShifts[] entries — historical row fields are never rewritten.

    What is a swap agreement in this context?

    A bilateral derivatives contract referencing the price or settlement value of an underlying event contract. The fund's counterparty pays the fund based on the underlying contract's settlement; the fund pays the counterparty a financing leg. Swap-based ETF exposure is a standard structure used elsewhere in commodity, single-stock, and volatility wrappers — applied here to CFTC-regulated event contracts. Specific counterparty, collateral, and concentration mechanics vary by prospectus.

    Primary sources

    Roundhill Investments — SEC EDGAR S-1 filinghttps://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=roundhill&type=S-1Roundhill Investments — Issuer presshttps://www.roundhillinvestments.comRoundhill Investments — Bloomberg(Isabelle Lee, Denitsa Tsekova)TBD_PRIMARY_SOURCE_BLOOMBERGBitwise Asset Management — SEC EDGAR S-1 filinghttps://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=bitwise&type=S-1Bitwise Asset Management — Issuer presshttps://bitwiseinvestments.comGraniteShares — SEC EDGAR S-1 filinghttps://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=graniteshares&type=S-1GraniteShares — Issuer presshttps://graniteshares.com

    We block 17 domains (including CoinDesk, Decrypt, The Block, Cointelegraph, Benzinga, AInvest, Coingape, Coinpedia, and every crypto-press / affiliate-farm domain on our banned-citations list) from serving as primary citations on this tracker. Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ, FT, NYT, AdvisorHub, ETF Trends, ETFdb, and Advisor Perspectives are acceptable as corroborating secondaries.

    Update log

    DateNote
    2026-04-24Tracker filed. 18 funds × 3 issuers seeded. SEC status: none approved, none declined. CNBC Brewer narrative-context entry held in `narrativeContextSeed` (pending verbatim verification — primary-source review).
    Audit cadence

    daily through Apr 29 (SEC review window outer boundary), weekly after; same-day if any issuer amends, withdraws, or the SEC issues a decision

    Last verified 2026-04-24 · Next audit due 2026-04-28 · Verify-on-every-session: yes