Will Election Prediction Markets Be Outlawed?
The Senate sports ban (Schiff-Curtis) never targeted elections. The new House companion bill does. Here's what both bills mean for your positions — and which market categories are safe.
Key Update: House Bill Goes Further Than Senate Bill
The Event Contract Enforcement Act (Moore-Carbajal, introduced March 5, 2026) would ban election, government-activity, and war/terrorism contracts — categories NOT covered by the Senate Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act. This is a new and distinct risk.
Active Regulatory Alerts
House Companion Bill Filed: Event Contract Enforcement Act (Moore-Carbajal)
Reps. Blake Moore (R-UT) + Salud Carbajal (D-CA) introduced the Event Contract Enforcement Act on March 5, 2026 (per utahpolicy.com press release and Sports Betting Dime March 6 coverage) — a House companion to the Schiff-Curtis Senate sports ban. Critically, this bill goes further: it bans CFTC listings for sports, elections, government activity, terrorism, assassination, and war. State carve-out allows opt-outs for tribal compacts. Moore's sponsorship is significant — he is a known CFTC defender. Both chambers now have active bipartisan legislation targeting prediction markets.
Rep. Moore Official Press ReleaseNevada TRO: Kalshi Blocked from Sports, Election, Entertainment Contracts
Judge Jason Woodbury (Carson City District Court) issued a Temporary Restraining Order on March 20, 2026, prohibiting Kalshi from offering sports, election, and entertainment contracts to Nevada residents. The Ninth Circuit denied Kalshi's emergency motion on March 19. Preliminary injunction hearing April 3, 2026. Nevada senators Cortez Masto and Rosen co-sponsored the Schiff-Curtis Senate bill on the same day as this TRO filing — state litigation and federal legislation are converging.
ReutersArizona Criminal Prosecution: First State Criminal Charges Against Kalshi
Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes filed 20 misdemeanor counts against KalshiEx LLC and Kalshi Trading LLC on March 17, 2026 in Maricopa County — the first criminal charges by a state against a CFTC-registered prediction market. Charges include operating an unlicensed gambling business AND 4 counts of election wagering (not sports-only). Initial appearance in Maricopa County criminal court: April 13, 2026. Separate federal PI hearing (Kalshi v. Arizona, Judge Liburdi): April 3. CFTC Chair Selig called charges entirely inappropriate as a criminal prosecution.
Arizona AG Official Press ReleaseTwo Bills — Very Different Scopes
The bills are often conflated in media coverage. They target different market categories.
Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act
Schiff (D-CA) + Curtis (R-UT)
Event Contract Enforcement Act
Moore (R-UT) + Carbajal (D-CA)
Market Category Risk Table
| Market Category | Senate Bill | House Bill |
|---|---|---|
| Sports event contracts | BANNED | BANNED |
| Election outcome contracts | Safe | BANNED |
| Government activity contracts | Safe | BANNED |
| War / terrorism contracts | Safe | BANNED |
| Economic/financial contracts | Safe | Safe |
| Weather contracts | Safe | Safe |
| Science/tech contracts | Safe | Safe |
Based on current legislative text as of March 25, 2026. Bills can be amended before passage.
Why Does the House Bill Go Further?
Platform Exposure
Kalshi
Polymarket
QCX LLC CFTC order amended November 25, 2025. US platform currently sports-only; election and political markets listed as "coming soon" in official app.
Full Regulatory Tracker Feed
STOP Corrupt Bets Act — Widest Scope Federal PM Ban Filed Today
Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-OR) and Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-MD-08) introduced the STOP Corrupt Bets Act on March 26, 2026 in a bicameral filing. The bill explicitly prohibits CFTC-registered entities from listing event contracts on: (1) elections and their outcomes; (2) government actions across all branches unless there is a commercial hedging need; (3) sports; and (4) U.S. or foreign military actions. The bill also clarifies that Congress never intended to legalize these markets under the Commodity Exchange Act and requires a GAO study on prediction market insider trading. Senate co-sponsors: Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), Richard Blumenthal (D-CT), Chris Van Hollen (D-MD), and Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI). This is the broadest-scope PM restriction bill filed to date — broader than Schiff-Curtis (sports only) and Moore-Carbajal. Path to law uncertain: any legislation requires President Trump's signature, and CFTC Chair Selig has signaled support for prediction markets.
End Prediction Market Corruption Act — Bars Officials from Trading
Sens. Jeff Merkley (D-OR) and Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) introduced the End Prediction Market Corruption Act on March 5, 2026. Co-sponsors: Chris Van Hollen (D-MD), Adam Schiff (D-CA), and Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY). The bill bans the President, Vice President, and Members of Congress from trading any event contracts. Senior executive branch officials (as defined by financial disclosure rules) are prohibited from trading event contracts on matters in which they personally and substantially participate in their official capacity. Violations: $10,000 civil penalty per count; Attorney General may bring federal civil action. Disclosure: all covered officials must report event contract trades in annual financial disclosure filings. Unlike Schiff-Curtis/STOP Corrupt Bets (which ban contract types), this bill restricts WHO can trade. Committee referral: not yet assigned as of introduction date.
House Companion Bill Filed: Event Contract Enforcement Act (Moore-Carbajal)
Reps. Blake Moore (R-UT) + Salud Carbajal (D-CA) introduced the Event Contract Enforcement Act on March 5, 2026 (per utahpolicy.com press release and Sports Betting Dime March 6 coverage) — a House companion to the Schiff-Curtis Senate sports ban. Critically, this bill goes further: it bans CFTC listings for sports, elections, government activity, terrorism, assassination, and war. State carve-out allows opt-outs for tribal compacts. Moore's sponsorship is significant — he is a known CFTC defender. Both chambers now have active bipartisan legislation targeting prediction markets.
Nevada TRO: Kalshi Blocked from Sports, Election, Entertainment Contracts
Judge Jason Woodbury (Carson City District Court) issued a Temporary Restraining Order on March 20, 2026, prohibiting Kalshi from offering sports, election, and entertainment contracts to Nevada residents. The Ninth Circuit denied Kalshi's emergency motion on March 19. Preliminary injunction hearing April 3, 2026. Nevada senators Cortez Masto and Rosen co-sponsored the Schiff-Curtis Senate bill on the same day as this TRO filing — state litigation and federal legislation are converging.
Arizona Criminal Prosecution: First State Criminal Charges Against Kalshi
Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes filed 20 misdemeanor counts against KalshiEx LLC and Kalshi Trading LLC on March 17, 2026 in Maricopa County — the first criminal charges by a state against a CFTC-registered prediction market. Charges include operating an unlicensed gambling business AND 4 counts of election wagering (not sports-only). Initial appearance in Maricopa County criminal court: April 13, 2026. Separate federal PI hearing (Kalshi v. Arizona, Judge Liburdi): April 3. CFTC Chair Selig called charges entirely inappropriate as a criminal prosecution.
Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act: Senate Bill to Ban Sports Contracts
Sens. Adam Schiff (D-CA) and John Curtis (R-UT) introduced the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act on March 23, 2026 — the first bipartisan Senate bill targeting prediction markets. The bill would prohibit CFTC-registered entities from listing sports prediction contracts or casino-style games. If passed, would remove sports event contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket.
Honest Bottom Line
Economic, financial, weather, and science prediction markets appear safe under both current bills. No legislation targets these categories.
Neither bill is law yet. Early-stage committee process. Prediction markets have survived legislative challenges before.
Rep. Blake Moore's co-sponsorship of the House bill is a meaningful signal shift — he was previously considered a CFTC ally. Bipartisan, bicameral momentum is real.
If both bills pass and are reconciled, the overlap (sports) is removed from CFTC jurisdiction. But a conference agreement could expand scope further.
Bias disclosure: PredictionMarkets.US has no financial relationship with Kalshi, Polymarket, or any prediction market platform. We aim to report legislative developments accurately, not editorially favor any outcome.