The Sports Ban Doesn't Touch These Prediction Markets
Politicians are targeting sports prediction contracts. Political, financial, weather, and geopolitical markets are in a different legal category — and are not affected by any current or proposed ban.
Active Legislation (Sports-Targeted)
STOP Corrupt Bets Act — Widest Scope Federal PM Ban Filed Today
Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-OR) and Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-MD-08) introduced the STOP Corrupt Bets Act on March 26, 2026 in a bicameral filing. The bill explicitly prohibits CFTC-registered entities from listing event contracts on: (1) elections and their outcomes; (2) government actions across all branches unless there is a commercial hedging need; (3) sports; and (4) U.S. or foreign military actions. The bill also clarifies that Congress never intended to legalize these markets under the Commodity Exchange Act and requires a GAO study on prediction market insider trading. Senate co-sponsors: Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), Richard Blumenthal (D-CT), Chris Van Hollen (D-MD), and Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI). This is the broadest-scope PM restriction bill filed to date — broader than Schiff-Curtis (sports only) and Moore-Carbajal. Path to law uncertain: any legislation requires President Trump's signature, and CFTC Chair Selig has signaled support for prediction markets.
Source: Sen. Merkley Official Press Release (March 26, 2026)End Prediction Market Corruption Act — Bars Officials from Trading
Sens. Jeff Merkley (D-OR) and Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) introduced the End Prediction Market Corruption Act on March 5, 2026. Co-sponsors: Chris Van Hollen (D-MD), Adam Schiff (D-CA), and Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY). The bill bans the President, Vice President, and Members of Congress from trading any event contracts. Senior executive branch officials (as defined by financial disclosure rules) are prohibited from trading event contracts on matters in which they personally and substantially participate in their official capacity. Violations: $10,000 civil penalty per count; Attorney General may bring federal civil action. Disclosure: all covered officials must report event contract trades in annual financial disclosure filings. Unlike Schiff-Curtis/STOP Corrupt Bets (which ban contract types), this bill restricts WHO can trade. Committee referral: not yet assigned as of introduction date.
Source: Sen. Merkley Official Press ReleaseHouse Companion Bill Filed: Event Contract Enforcement Act (Moore-Carbajal)
Reps. Blake Moore (R-UT) + Salud Carbajal (D-CA) introduced the Event Contract Enforcement Act on March 5, 2026 (per utahpolicy.com press release and Sports Betting Dime March 6 coverage) — a House companion to the Schiff-Curtis Senate sports ban. Critically, this bill goes further: it bans CFTC listings for sports, elections, government activity, terrorism, assassination, and war. State carve-out allows opt-outs for tribal compacts. Moore's sponsorship is significant — he is a known CFTC defender. Both chambers now have active bipartisan legislation targeting prediction markets.
Source: Rep. Moore Official Press ReleaseThe Legal Distinction
- Sports game outcomes
- Championship / playoff markets
- Player performance props
- War / death contracts (DEATH BETS Act)
States argue these are gambling. The Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act targets sports contracts.
- Political / election outcomes
- Fed rate decisions, CPI, GDP
- Geopolitical events
- Weather milestones
- Entertainment / award shows
CFTC-regulated financial derivatives. No state ban applies. No legislation targets these.
The key distinction: sports betting is regulated state-by-state as gambling. Financial, political, and economic derivatives are regulated at the federal level by the CFTC. Federal law preempts state law for CFTC-licensed instruments.
Prediction Market Categories: What's Affected?
| Category | Examples | Sports Ban? | DEATH BETS? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Political / Elections | Presidential elections, Senate races, ballot propositions, approval ratings | Not Affected | Not Affected |
| Financial / Economic | Fed rate decisions, CPI prints, GDP reports, inflation targets, earnings | Not Affected | Not Affected |
| Geopolitical | Diplomatic outcomes, foreign elections, international events | Not Affected | Partial |
| Weather | Temperature records, storm landfalls, precipitation milestones | Not Affected | Not Affected |
| Entertainment / Culture | Award show winners, box office results, reality TV outcomes | Not Affected | Not Affected |
| Sports Events | Game outcomes, championship winners, player performance | Targeted | Not Affected |
"Partial" for geopolitical: the DEATH BETS Act targets war/assassination sub-contracts, not diplomatic outcome markets.
Platforms With Strong Non-Sports Catalogs
Full non-sports catalog available. Sports contracts currently offered but targeted by Schiff-Curtis bill.
QCX LLC (Polymarket US) relaunched Dec 2025 with CFTC license. Currently offers sports markets only; non-sports categories listed as 'COMING SOON' on the official app.
Interactive Brokers platform. Focused exclusively on financial events — macro data, rates, earnings.
What Happens If the Sports Ban Passes?
Removed
- Game winner markets
- Championship odds
- Player stat props
Unaffected
- Election markets
- Fed / CPI / GDP markets
- Weather contracts
- Geopolitical (non-war)
Watch
- War outcome markets
- Individual-death contracts
- Assassination predictions
Check Your State's Access
A handful of states block prediction markets via court injunction (Nevada) or pending enforcement (Ohio, Arizona for sports and elections). Use the state checker to see what's available where you are.
Check My StateFrequently Asked Questions
Related
Live status of all active legislation and enforcement
Federal vs state jurisdiction breakdown for geo markets
Honest debate on the normative case for and against
What's available in your state right now
Honest Disclosure
Legislative status information is sourced from primary government sources and updated as bills progress. This page reflects the law as of March 2026 — always verify current status via the Regulatory Tracker.