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2026 FIFA World Cup Winner

This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolves Jul 20, 2026

Total Volume

$1.0B

+$13.9M (24h)

Active Markets

Across 2 platforms

Frontrunner

17¢

France

Biggest Mover 24h

—

No movement

Arb Opportunities

None detected

All Markets

50 markets · Showing 8

#						24H
1	France	17¢	17¢	18¢	$29.7M+$375.2K 24h	—	1¢
2	Spain	17¢	17¢	17¢	$22.1M+$175.5K 24h	—	—
3	England	11¢	11¢	11¢	$17.9M+$213.2K 24h	—	—
4	Brazil	9¢	9¢	10¢	$19.4M+$134.8K 24h	—	—
5	Argentina	9¢	9¢	9¢	$18.6M+$208.5K 24h	—	1¢
6	Portugal	8¢	8¢	8¢	$21.1M+$301.5K 24h	—	—
7	Germany	5¢	5¢	5¢	$17.3M+$206.2K 24h	—	—
8	Netherlands	3¢	3¢	4¢	$19.7M+$418.6K 24h	—	—

Implied Probability

Consensus across platforms

1France

17%

17¢—

2Spain

17%

17¢—

3England

11¢—

4Brazil

9¢—

5Argentina

9¢—

6Portugal

8¢—

7Germany

5¢—

8Netherlands

3¢—

9Norway

2¢—

10Japan

2¢—

11Belgium

2¢—

12Colombia

2¢—

13Morocco

2¢—

14USA

2¢—

15Switzerland

1¢—

16Mexico

1¢—

17Croatia

1¢—

18Uruguay

1¢—

19Senegal

1¢—

20Ecuador

1¢—

21Austria

1¢—

22Sweden

1¢—

23Canada

0¢—

24Ivory Coast

0¢—

25South Korea

0¢—

26Egypt

0¢—

27Paraguay

0¢—

28Scotland

0¢—

29Tunisia

0¢—

30Bosnia and Herzegovina

0¢—

31Ghana

0¢—

32Algeria

0¢—

33Australia

0¢—

34Iran

0¢—

35Saudi Arabia

0¢—

36Curacao

0¢—

37Jordan

0¢—

38New Zealand

0¢—

39Cape Verde

0¢—

40Panama

0¢—

41Qatar

0¢—

42Iraq

0¢—

43Congo DR

0¢—

44South Africa

0¢—

45Uzbekistan

0¢—

46Haiti

0¢—

Price History

FranceSpainEnglandBrazil

Event Info

Resolution Date

~Jul 20, 2026

~66 days remaining

Whale Activity

Mega

bought $100K No on Iran

polymarket · 2 days ago

Mega

bought $100K No on Iran

polymarket · 16 days ago

Mega

bought $92K No on Iran

polymarket · about 13 hours ago

Mega

sold $85K No on Netherlands

polymarket · 8 days ago

View all whale activity →

Timeline

Price MoveMay 15, 7:00 PM
Price move: Yes price moved down by 8.7% in 24h
Belgium · Kalshi
Price MoveMay 15, 7:00 PM
Price move: Yes price moved up by 25.0% in 24h
Croatia · Kalshi
Price MoveMay 15, 7:00 PM
Price move: Yes price moved up by 7.1% in 24h
USA · Kalshi
DivergenceMay 15, 7:00 PM
Pricing disconnect: platforms disagree by 25¢ on outcome probability
Croatia · Kalshi, Polymarket
Price MoveMay 15, 6:00 PM
Price move: Yes price moved up by 25.0% in 24h
Croatia · Kalshi