Smarkets US Prediction Markets Guide 2026
Smarkets — the UK's second-largest betting exchange — filed CFTC DCM and DCO applications in March 2026 to enter the U.S. prediction market. If approved, it would operate an exchange-style, peer-to-peer event contract market backed by Susquehanna.
Filed
Mar 3, 2026
Status
Pending
Annual Volume
~$3B
Lifetime Volume
$50B+
Our Take
UK's second-largest betting exchange entering the US — CFTC DCM application pending, ~$3B/year volume, backed by SIG
CFTC Filing #59862 — Filed March 3, 2026 — Status: Pending — 180-day review window
Potential Strengths
Exchange-style model with peer-to-peer pricing
Smarkets uses a central limit order book (CLOB) where users set prices — no house edge, tighter spreads for active markets
Experienced operator
Founded 2008 with $50B+ in lifetime volume — one of the most experienced prediction/betting exchange operators globally
Susquehanna backing
Backed by Susquehanna International Group (SIG), a major quantitative trading firm — adds market-making and risk expertise
Full-stack own infrastructure
Smarkets owns its matching engine, payment gateways, market maker, and settlement — not dependent on third-party exchange infrastructure
Current Limitations
Not yet available in the US
CFTC DCM application filed March 3, 2026 — pending approval, which can take up to 180 days. U.S. trading is not yet live.
DCO application also pending
The separate clearing entity (Smarkets Board of Trade Clearing) has not yet appeared in the CFTC DCO portal as of April 2026
Competing against established US exchanges
Kalshi received its CFTC DCM designation in November 2020 and launched trading in July 2021; Polymarket (QCX) received DCM designation in July 2025. Smarkets will enter a market with established liquidity elsewhere.
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Who Is Smarkets?
UK betting exchange entering the US market
Smarkets is a UK-based betting exchange and prediction market founded in 2008. It is the second-largest prediction exchange in the UK, reporting approximately $3 billion in annual trading volume and over $50 billion in lifetime trading volume (per BanklessTimes, March 10, 2026).
Unlike traditional sportsbooks where the house sets fixed odds and takes the other side of every bet, Smarkets operates a peer-to-peer exchange model — users post bids and offers, and the platform matches them against each other. This exchange structure results in tighter prices and no house edge, similar to how stock exchanges work.
Smarkets operates profitably using its own in-house technology stack — including a bet-matching system, market maker, payment gateways, and settlement mechanism. The company is backed by Susquehanna International Group (SIG), a major quantitative trading firm. CEO is Jason Trost.
“Right now, the American market is racing against time to figure out how to regulate prediction markets. We believe now is the right time to enter the American market and apply the experience that helped us succeed in the UK, working with regulators rather than going around them.”
— Jason Trost, CEO of Smarkets
[Source: Incrypted, March 10, 2026]
CFTC DCM Application
Federal regulatory filing status
On March 3, 2026, Smarkets filed a Designated Contract Market (DCM) application with the CFTC under the entity name Smarkets Board of Trade Exchange LLC (also doing business as Smarkets Exchange). This is CFTC filing number #59862.
A DCM designation is the same license held by Kalshi (since November 2020), Polymarket's QCX (July 2025), and Crypto.com's CDNA. With a DCM license, Smarkets could offer federally regulated event contract trading to U.S. users nationwide — without state-by-state sportsbook licensing.
DCM Application
Smarkets Board of Trade Exchange LLC
Filing #: 59862
Filed: March 3, 2026
Status: Pending
DBA: Smarkets Exchange
DCO Application
Smarkets Board of Trade Clearing
Separate clearing entity
Filing: In progress
Status: Not yet in CFTC DCO portal (Apr 2026)
[Source: DeFi Rate, March 6, 2026]
Review timeline: The CFTC has 180 days to approve or deny a DCM application. Filed March 3, 2026, this means a decision is due by approximately August 31, 2026 — though the CFTC may approve faster or request additional information, which could extend the timeline. Verify current status at CFTC.gov.
How Smarkets' Exchange Model Works
Peer-to-peer exchange architecture
Smarkets' filing documents outline the structure of the proposed U.S. exchange:
Central Limit Order Book (CLOB)
Users post bids and offers for binary event contracts ("Yes" or "No" on defined outcomes). The platform matches opposing orders. This is the same structure used by traditional financial exchanges and results in market-determined pricing — no house sets odds.
Peer-to-Peer Matching
Unlike platforms where a market maker quotes prices, Smarkets' model has users trading against each other. The platform earns commission on matched trades rather than taking a position. This typically results in tighter spreads in active markets.
Fully Collateralized Clearing
Smarkets Board of Trade Clearing would act as a fully collateralized clearinghouse — standing between buyers and sellers on each matched trade and guaranteeing contract performance upon settlement.
Intermediary Support
The filing describes a market structure that supports futures commission merchants (FCMs) and introducing brokers (IBs) routing customer orders — meaning Smarkets could build a hub-and-spoke distribution model similar to Kalshi.
Dual Regulatory Strategy
Federal and state licensing approach
Smarkets is pursuing two parallel regulatory tracks in the United States:
- CFTC DCM + DCO track: The primary prediction market exchange registration. Allows Smarkets to list and clear event contracts for U.S. users under federal commodities regulation — the same track as Kalshi and Polymarket's QCX.
- State sportsbook licensing (SBK product): Smarkets also operates SBK, a sports betting product. For state-regulated sports betting markets, Smarkets is pursuing state-by-state sportsbook licenses separately from its federal prediction market application.
This dual-track approach mirrors how other operators are positioning across both the federal prediction market and state sports betting regulatory frameworks — which can overlap for sports event contracts.
Smarkets vs. Established U.S. Exchanges
Feature comparison with Kalshi and Polymarket
| Feature | Smarkets (planned) | Kalshi | Polymarket (QCX) |
|---|---|---|---|
| US status | CFTC DCM application pending (Mar 2026) | CFTC DCM + DCO (Nov 2020) | CFTC DCM + DCO (July 2025) |
| Exchange model | Peer-to-peer CLOB | Order book + market makers | Order book + market makers |
| Trading volume | ~$3B/year (UK) | Leading US exchange | Leading global exchange |
| Backing | Susquehanna (SIG) | Paradigm (Series E, $1B) | ICE/NYSE ($2B investment) |
| Founded | 2008 | 2018 | 2020 |
| Own clearing (DCO) | Planned (pending) | Yes | Yes (QCX) |
| Distribution model | TBD (FCM/IB support planned) | Hub-and-spoke (Robinhood, Coinbase, Webull) | Partnership model |
Timeline
Key dates and milestones
Broader Context: The CFTC Applicant Pipeline
Where Smarkets fits in the DCM landscape
Smarkets isn't walking into an empty field. As of April 2026, the CFTC had received approximately 17 DCM applications since early 2025, with seven approved and ten still pending. Smarkets joins other exchange-style sports betting platforms pursuing federal prediction market approval, including Sporttrade and Novig's Ludlow Exchange.
What sets Smarkets apart from most applicants is its track record: $50B in lifetime volume, 18 years of exchange operation, and a full-stack proprietary infrastructure it owns outright. Most U.S. applicants are building their exchanges from scratch. Smarkets is porting an already-operational system.
Sources & Methodology: CFTC filing data from CFTC.gov filing #59862 . Company background and volume figures from BanklessTimes (March 10, 2026) and FinanceFeeds (March 10, 2026). CEO quote from Incrypted (March 10, 2026). Dual regulatory strategy from FinanceFeeds (March 10, 2026). Pipeline data from DeFi Rate (March 23, 2026). PredictionMarkets.us is editorially independent.
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