Beta
    International regulation
    Durable tracker
    11 rows
    Last verified: 2026-04-27
    Verbatim-quote verification in progress

    International Prediction Market Regulatory Actions

    A primary-source-first tracker of sovereign actions — criminal, regulatory, civil, and informational — against, for, or carving out prediction markets outside the United States. New rulings are added as rows; we do not collapse history.

    Our policy on this tracker

    Every row is backed by a primary source (gov/regulator page, gazette, or court docket). We re-fetch primary sources every session. Where verbatim text is non-English, we render the original with a translation note and hold the passage pending-verification if we have not yet confirmed the exact wording directly.

    1. Neutral voice only. We report what primary sources say — we do not characterize sovereigns' intent.
    2. Never speculate on platform response. If Polymarket or Kalshi issues a governance-layer statement, swap in the verbatim quote with attribution; never paraphrase.
    3. Never recommend VPN, geofence-bypass, offshore-wrapper, or invite-code workarounds of any kind.
    4. Never name individual users, bettors, or alleged victims — even when a non-English outlet publishes handles.
    5. Primary-source only. Banned domains listed in bannedSources[] are never cited; we use primary filings (gov.br, bcb.gov.br, gazette, court docket) or Tier-1 press as substitutes.
    6. Re-fetch every primary source URL every session. French and Brazilian press outlets have silently revised dated copy before — the April 17→19 Polymarket V2 cutover is the documented precedent.
    7. A new regulatory category (non-financial-event derivative) is not a legal opinion. We describe the shape of rules; we do not issue compliance advice.
    8. Rows are additive. We do not collapse history. If a row's status changes, we append an updateLog entry and keep the original scope text.
    9. Tier-1 elite-press structural-frame synthesis (Bloomberg/WSJ/FT/NYT/AP) lands on narrativeShifts[], never on row rewrite. The action-log is immutable; narrative context is a separate layer.
    10. Foreign-sovereign categorical actions enter the tracker as PENDING rows when only secondary press is available. Primary-source verification is non-optional. PENDING rows render with explicit 'verification in progress' state and are excluded from filterable totals.
    11. Multi-jurisdiction 'crackdown' framing is attributed to the originating apex outlet, never adopted in PM.US voice. We describe patterns; we do not characterize sovereign intent.

    Action-tier taxonomy

    Five tiers, from most-severe (criminal) to most-contextual (academic primary research). The taxonomy is neutral — higher tier numbers are not a ranking of worse or better, only a shape descriptor for the type of action.

    Tier 1
    Criminal complaint / prosecution

    A sovereign or its criminal authority has filed a complaint, indictment, or opened a criminal investigation naming prediction-market activity. The most severe tier; presumption of innocence applies to every named party.

    Tier 2
    Executive-regulatory categorical ban

    A sovereign's executive or monetary authority has issued a rule, decree, or regulation that categorically prohibits a defined class of prediction-market contracts within its territory.

    Tier 3
    Civil regulatory query / consultation

    A civil financial regulator has published periodic queries, a call for evidence, or a consultation that specifically references prediction-market structures — without (yet) issuing a prohibition or license.

    Tier 4
    Info-only license lane

    The platform does not hold a local gaming license in the jurisdiction; its presence is limited to sponsorship, data, or informational surface. Trading is not available in-territory.

    Tier 5
    Academic primary research

    Primary-source academic research from a sovereign's own institutions that materially informs domestic regulatory posture. Included because regulators cite it; not itself a rule.

    Filter rows
    Showing 11 of 11 rows
    Brazil(BR)
    Tier 2 — Executive-regulatory categorical ban
    Pending direct verification
    Anatel (acting on SPA ofício) · Ministério da Fazenda — Secretaria de Prêmios e Apostas (issuing authority)

    27-platform domain block via ISP-level DNS/IP blocking inside Brazil; parallel mechanism to CMN 5.298.

    Date
    2026-04-24
    Effective
    2026-04-24
    Status
    active-effective
    Exact-intent page →Primary source
    Brazil(BR)
    Tier 2 — Executive-regulatory categorical ban
    Pending direct verification
    CMN (Conselho Monetário Nacional) · CVM (Comissão de Valores Mobiliários — complementary)

    Categorical ban on non-financial-event derivative contracts; carve-out preserved for economic-financial indicators.

    Date
    2026-04-23
    Effective
    2026-05-04
    Status
    active-pre-effective
    Exact-intent page →Primary source
    France(FR)
    Tier 1 — Criminal complaint / prosecution
    Météo France (complainant) + French judicial authorities (aviation-transport gendarmerie)

    Criminal complaint alleging weather-oracle manipulation on a Polymarket Paris-temperature market.

    Date
    2026-04-21
    Status
    open-investigation
    Exact-intent page →Primary source
    United Kingdom(GB)
    Tier 3 — Civil regulatory query / consultation
    FCA (Financial Conduct Authority) · Gambling Commission (separate cognizance)

    Periodic civil regulatory queries regarding prediction-market structures in UK retail surface.

    Date
    rolling
    Status
    ongoing
    Exact-intent page →Primary source
    Italy(IT)
    Tier 4 — Info-only license lane
    ADM (Agenzia delle Dogane e dei Monopoli)

    Info-only jurisdiction: platform presence limited to sponsorship and informational surface; no local gaming license.

    Date
    ongoing
    Status
    ongoing
    Exact-intent page →Primary source
    France(FR)
    Tier 4 — Info-only license lane
    ANJ (Autorité Nationale des Jeux)

    Info-only jurisdiction: no ANJ license for prediction-market operator trading into France.

    Date
    ongoing
    Status
    ongoing
    Exact-intent page →Primary source
    Switzerland(CH)
    Tier 4 — Info-only license lane
    Gespa (Gesamtschweizerische Spielaufsichtsbehörde)

    Info-only jurisdiction: no Gespa license for prediction-market operator trading into Switzerland.

    Date
    ongoing
    Status
    ongoing
    Exact-intent page →Primary source
    Australia(AU)
    Tier 4 — Info-only license lane
    Commonwealth + State/Territory gaming authorities (e.g. NOLA, VIC GC, NSW L&GNSW) · ASIC (financial instruments cognizance if classified as derivative)

    Info-only jurisdiction: no state/territory wagering license for prediction-market operator trading into Australia.

    Date
    ongoing
    Status
    ongoing
    Exact-intent page →Primary source
    Brazil(BR)
    Tier 5 — Academic primary research
    FGV EESP (Fundação Getulio Vargas — Escola de Economia de São Paulo)

    Academic primary research on retail day-trader profitability — cited into Brazilian regulatory posture.

    Date
    2026
    Status
    published
    Exact-intent page →Primary source
    Argentina(AR)
    Tier 2 — Executive-regulatory categorical ban
    Pending direct verification
    [PENDING — primary-source review primary-source hunt: BCRA / CNV / Lotería Nacional]

    [PENDING — research brief flags Argentina March 17 categorical action; primary source not yet located]

    Date
    2026-03-17
    Status
    pending-verification
    Primary source
    Colombia(CO)
    Tier 2 — Executive-regulatory categorical ban
    Pending direct verification
    [PENDING — primary-source review primary-source hunt: Coljuegos / Superintendencia Financiera / DIAN]

    [PENDING — research brief flags Colombia categorical action earlier in 2026; primary source not yet located]

    Date
    [PENDING — research brief 'earlier 2026' undated; resolve to specific decreto/circular date]
    Status
    pending-verification
    Primary source

    Narrative context

    • 2026-04-24·Bloomberg
      Global crackdown — multi-jurisdiction LATAM enforcement cycle

      Brazil's CMN Resolução 5.298 + Anatel ISP-block recasts foreign-sovereign categorical actions as a multi-jurisdiction pattern rather than country-specific events. Bloomberg's 04-24 synthesis is the first Tier-1 elite-press framing of LATAM enforcement as a coordinated regulatory cycle (Argentina Mar 17 → Colombia → Brazil Apr 24), arriving inside the 24h window before Polymarket's V2 cutover and 7d before CMN 5.298 effective date (May 4). Framing is Bloomberg's, attributed — not adopted in PM.US voice.

      https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-24/brazil-moves-to-ban-prediction-markets-on-elections-sports

    What this tracker is NOT

    • A legal opinion. We describe the shape of primary-source rules; we do not issue compliance advice.
    • A ranking. Higher tier numbers are not worse or better — they are a shape descriptor.
    • A list of access workarounds. We never recommend VPN, geofence-bypass, invite-code vendors, or offshore wrappers.
    • A prediction. We do not forecast what Polymarket or Kalshi will do next, nor what other sovereigns will do.
    • A victim or user list. We do not name individual bettors, handles, or alleged victims even when non-English outlets publish them.
    • A substitute for the exact-intent page per jurisdiction. Each row links to the deeper page on the specific action.

    Primary sources across all rows

    Brazil — Valor Globo — Apr 24, 2026 (full 27-platform list)(2026-04-24)https://valor.globo.com/financas/Brazil — Banco Central do Brasil — normativo repository(2026-04-23)https://www.bcb.gov.br/estabilidadefinanceira/exibenormativo?tipo=Resolu%C3%A7%C3%A3o%20CMN&numero=5298France — Météo France(2026-04-21)https://www.meteofrance.fr/United Kingdom — Financial Conduct Authority(rolling)https://www.fca.org.uk/Italy — Agenzia delle Dogane e dei Monopoli(ongoing)https://www.adm.gov.it/France — Autorité Nationale des Jeux(ongoing)https://anj.fr/Switzerland — Gespa(ongoing)https://www.gespa.ch/Australia — ACMA (Australian Communications and Media Authority — illegal-offshore register)(ongoing)https://www.acma.gov.au/Brazil — FGV EESP(2026)https://eesp.fgv.br/Argentina — [PENDING — primary source not yet located](2026-03-17)Colombia — [PENDING — primary source not yet located]([PENDING — research brief 'earlier 2026' undated; resolve to specific decreto/circular date])

    We block 30 domains (including CoinDesk, Decrypt, The Block, Cointelegraph, Bitcoin.com, Cryptoast, JournalDuCoin, and every geo-unlock / affiliate-farm domain on our banned-citations list) from serving as primary citations on this tracker. Reuters, AP, Bloomberg, FT, and WSJ are acceptable as corroborating secondaries when they publish.

    Looking for US state-level actions?

    For New York AG civil actions, Wisconsin DOJ complaints, Kentucky HB 904, and the full US state map, see the state prediction market actions tracker.

    Audit cadence

    weekly; same-day if any sovereign files a new action, or if any existing row's primary source silently revises

    Last verified 2026-04-27 · Next audit due 2026-05-04 · Verify-on-every-session: yes