How Prediction Market Timing Contracts Work | PredictionMarkets.US
Why the same event can trade at very different prices across April, June, and later deadlines — and how to read that timing gap correctly.
Platforms
3
Examples
Live
Updated
Apr 2026
Focus
Timing
Quick Summary
The key takeaway from this page
Live example callout
Real contract examples
Ceasefire in current Iran conflict
Same underlying event. Nested probability over time. Shorter = harder deadline = lower price.
Ceasefire by Apr 30, 2026
Polymarket · deadline Apr 30, 2026
Check current market price on-platform
Ceasefire by Jun 30, 2026
Polymarket · deadline Jun 30, 2026
Check current market price on-platform
Last updated: See platform market pages for latest prices and update date
The core logic
Fundamental timing mechanics
Each contract asks a different question
‘By Apr 30’ and ‘By Jun 30’ are not duplicate contracts. They are separate deadlines with different win conditions.
A shorter window is harder to hit
If an event needs to happen soon, the market needs evidence that it is imminent — not just plausible eventually.
Longer windows accumulate probability
More time means more opportunities for the event to occur, so the longer-dated contract usually trades higher.
Probability tree, simplified
This is the key idea: the longer contract can be more expensive without contradicting the shorter one. It is pricing more time, not a different reality.
Gap interpreter
Calculate timing gaps
Implied per-period probability
36.0%
Using a simple cumulative-probability approximation: P = 1 - (1 - P_long)^(1 / periods)
Extra time value priced in
35¢
The long-date contract is charging you that much more for the wider time window.
What moves one contract but not the other?
Asymmetric price drivers
Short-date moves only
- Imminent operational news
- A narrow deadline signal this week
- A rumor that matters now, not later
Long-date moves only
- A regime shift or negotiation framework change
- A sanctions or diplomacy signal with no immediate deadline
- Evidence the event is more likely eventually, but not soon
Both move together
- A head-of-state announcement that changes the whole path
- Confirmed talks collapsing or restarting
- A broad probability reset across all timelines
Platform comparison
Cross-platform timing features
| Platform | Has dated event series? | Resolution rule source | Contract naming convention |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | Awaiting Confirmation | Awaiting Confirmation | Awaiting Confirmation |
| Polymarket | Awaiting Confirmation | Awaiting Confirmation | Awaiting Confirmation |
| Interactive Brokers | Awaiting Confirmation | Awaiting Confirmation | Awaiting Confirmation |
Some platform-specific timing fields still need source verification. The page ships the education framework now and marks those comparison cells clearly until the fact store is updated.
Frequently Asked Questions
4 common questions answered