How Prediction Market Payouts Work
From market resolution to cash in your account — a plain-language guide.
The Three-Stage Payout Lifecycle
Resolution
The market closes. An oracle (NOAA data, AP election call, price feed, etc.) confirms the outcome. Winning contracts are identified automatically.
Settlement
The platform calculates payouts. Winning contracts pay out at $1.00 face value. Fees are deducted: Kalshi up to 1.75¢/contract (entry only), Polymarket most markets fee-free (crypto up to 1.56%, select sports up to 0.44%), Robinhood $0.02/contract per side (both buy and sell).
Credit
Funds move into your account balance. Timing varies by platform. On Coinbase-linked Kalshi accounts, a secondary sync step can add a display delay.
Payout Timing by Platform
Timing estimates below are sourced from official platform documentation. Settlement timing can vary by market category and oracle source — treat these as typical ranges, not guarantees.
| Platform | Payout Method | Typical Timing |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | Cash (USD) | Most markets settle within a few hours after the outcome is known (often ~3 hours). Funds credit to your account balance immediately after settlement. |
| Polymarket | USDC (crypto stablecoin) | Uncontested resolutions: minimum 2 hours after the UMA oracle fires. Resolutions that are disputed and escalated to a UMA token holder vote can take significantly longer. |
| Robinhood | Cash (USD, brokerage) | Up to 2 business days for proceeds to become available for withdrawal. Funds transfer from Robinhood Derivatives to your investing account, which may add a display delay. |
| Coinbase (via Kalshi) | Cash (USD) | Two-step: Kalshi settles first, then Coinbase display syncs. Display lag is common. |
How Resolution Triggers Your Payout
Frequently Asked Questions
Related Guides
Payout Calculator
Calculate exact hold-to-resolution and sell-early payouts.
Coinbase Balance Issues
Why Coinbase balances look wrong after resolution.
Why Settlement Sources Differ
What you see on a chart vs. what actually determines your payout.
When a Market Resolves Wrong
What recourse you have if you believe a resolution was incorrect.
A note on timing estimates
Timing figures above are sourced from official platform documentation as of April 2026 (Kalshi Help Center, Polymarket official docs). These are typical ranges, not contractual SLAs — actual settlement can vary by market category and oracle source. Robinhood timing is from secondary sources pending an official Robinhood support page. When in doubt, wait a few hours before contacting support — most display discrepancies resolve on their own.