Beta
    LIVE
    8s

    What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

    Resolves Dec 9, 2026
    Total Volume

    $6.5M

    +$2.5K (24h)

    Active Markets

    15

    Across 1 platforms

    Frontrunner

    62¢

    3.75%

    Biggest Mover 24h

    +4¢

    4.0%

    Arb Opportunities

    0

    None detected

    All Markets

    15 markets · Showing 8
    #24H
    1
    3.75%
    		62¢64¢
    $518.3K+$297 24h
    		-3¢—
    2
    4.0%
    		17¢21¢
    $1.4M+$259 24h
    		+4¢—
    3
    3.25%
    		8¢9¢
    $51.4K+$105 24h
    		-2¢—
    4
    3.5%
    		7¢8¢
    $190.1K+$101 24h
    		-1¢—
    5
    3.0%
    		4¢4¢
    $454.7K+$101 24h
    		——
    6
    4.25%
    		3¢4¢
    $413.4K+$553 24h
    		+1¢—
    7
    ≥ 4.5%
    		1¢2¢
    $2.4M+$301 24h
    		——
    8
    2.75%
    		1¢1¢
    $46.0K+$101 24h
    		——

    Implied Probability

    Consensus across platforms
    13.75%
    62%
    62¢-3¢
    24.0%
    17%
    17¢+4¢
    33.25%
    8¢-2¢
    43.5%
    7¢-1¢
    53.0%
    4¢—
    64.25%
    3¢+1¢
    7≥ 4.5%
    1¢—
    82.75%
    1¢—
    91.25
    1¢—
    102.5%
    1¢—
    112.25%
    1¢—
    121.75%
    1¢—
    131.5%
    0¢—
    14≤1.0%
    0¢—
    152.0%
    0¢—

    Price History

    3.75%4.0%3.25%3.5%
    May 9 20:00May 10 23:00May 12 02:00May 13 05:00May 14 08:00May 15 19:560.7%20.7%40.7%70.3%

    Related reading

    External
    Economics

    Will the Fed Cut Interest Rates in 2026? Don't Get Your Hopes Up, Some Experts Say

    1 minUnknown
    Economics

    https://wellsfargo.bluematrix.com/links2/pdf/d241dd54-18da-47e0-b615-d0c18404b862

    1 minTim Quinlan
    Economics

    What’s Next for the Fed in 2026? | Morningstar

    1 minSarah Hansen
    Economics

    Moving From Cuts to Caution: Fed Enters 2026 in Wait-and-See Mode | PIMCO

    1 minTiffany Wilding
    Economics

    What to Expect from the Federal Reserve in 2026

    1 minUnknown
    Economics

    How Many Rate Cuts In 2026? Mounting Pressure Puts the Fed at a Crossroads | Bankrate

    1 minSarah Foster

    Event Info

    Resolution Date

    ~Dec 9, 2026

    ~208 days remaining
    Category
    Economics
    Markets
    15
    Platforms
    1
    Total Volume
    $6.5M

    Whale Activity

    Whale

    sold $17K No on 3.75%

    polymarket · about 2 months ago

    Whale

    bought $16K No on 3.75%

    polymarket · about 2 months ago

    Whale

    bought $16K No on 3.75%

    polymarket · about 2 months ago

    Whale

    bought $16K No on 3.75%

    polymarket · about 2 months ago

    View all whale activity →

    Timeline

    • Price MoveMay 15, 7:00 PM

      Price move: Yes price moved up by 39.3% in 24h

      4.25% · Polymarket

    • Price MoveMay 15, 7:00 PM

      Price move: Yes price moved down by 10.0% in 24h

      3.25% · Polymarket

    • Price MoveMay 15, 7:00 PM

      Price move: Yes price moved up by 52.0% in 24h

      4.0% · Polymarket

    • Price MoveMay 15, 6:00 PM

      Price move: Yes price moved up by 100.0% in 24h

      4.0% · Polymarket

    • Price MoveMay 15, 6:00 PM

      Price move: Yes price moved up by 35.7% in 24h

      4.25% · Polymarket