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    US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

    Resolves Dec 31, 2026
    Total Volume

    $52.9M

    +$2.5M (24h)

    Active Markets

    4

    Across 1 platforms

    Frontrunner

    67¢

    December 31

    Biggest Mover 24h

    +4¢

    December 31

    Arb Opportunities

    0

    None detected

    All Markets

    4 markets · Showing 4
    #24H
    1
    December 31
    		67¢67¢
    $1.8M+$108.6K 24h
    		+4¢—
    2
    June 30
    		34¢34¢
    $9.3M+$152.1K 24h
    		——
    3
    May 31
    		12¢12¢
    $23.7M+$859.2K 24h
    		-1¢—
    4
    May 15
    		0¢0¢
    $18.1M+$1.4M 24h
    		——

    Implied Probability

    Consensus across platforms
    1December 31
    67%
    67¢+4¢
    2June 30
    34%
    34¢—
    3May 31
    12%
    12¢-1¢
    4May 15
    0¢—

    Price History

    December 31June 30May 31
    May 9 20:00May 10 23:00May 12 02:00May 13 05:00May 14 08:00May 15 19:562.7%27.7%52.7%84.3%

    Related reading

    External
    Politics

    US and Iran closing in on agreement aimed at ending war, source says | CNN Politics

    1 minNic Robertson, Alayna Treene, Kevin Liptak
    Politics

    What are US proposals to end war, and will Iran agree to them? | US-Israel war on Iran News | Al Jazeera

    1 minAl Jazeera Staff
    Politics

    What’s Iran’s 14-point proposal to end the war? And will Trump accept it? | US-Israel war on Iran News | Al Jazeera

    1 minPriyanka Shankar
    Politics

    What’s the Status of U.S.-Iran War and Peace Talks?

    1 minMiranda Jeyaretnam
    Politics

    U.S. has a 15-point plan to end war with Iran, officials say - The Washington Post

    1 minGreg Miller
    Politics

    US and Iran Close to One-Page Memorandum of Understanding to End War and Launch Nuclear Talks

    1 minA Kumar
    Politics

    Despite a New Proposal From Iran, Ceasefire Negotiations With US Are in Flux

    1 minUnknown

    Event Info

    Resolution Date

    ~Dec 31, 2026

    ~230 days remaining
    Category
    Politics
    Markets
    4
    Platforms
    1
    Total Volume
    $52.9M

    Whale Activity

    Mega

    bought $123K No on May 31

    polymarket · about 18 hours ago

    Mega

    bought $103K No on May 31

    polymarket · 1 day ago

    Mega

    bought $100K No on May 15

    polymarket · about 1 hour ago

    Mega

    bought $100K No on May 15

    polymarket · about 1 hour ago

    View all whale activity →

    Timeline

    • Price MoveMay 15, 7:00 PM

      Price move: Yes price moved up by 6.3% in 24h

      December 31 · Polymarket

    • Price MoveMay 15, 7:00 PM

      Price move: Yes price moved down by 15.4% in 24h

      May 31 · Polymarket

    • Price MoveMay 15, 7:00 PM

      Price move: Yes price moved down by 60.0% in 24h

      May 15 · Polymarket

    • Price MoveMay 15, 6:00 PM

      Price move: Yes price moved down by 60.0% in 24h

      May 15 · Polymarket

    • Price MoveMay 15, 6:00 PM

      Price move: Yes price moved up by 6.3% in 24h

      December 31 · Polymarket