What Are Earnings Mentions Markets?
Betting on words, not outcomes. These contracts resolve based on whether a specific term gets said during a company's earnings call.
How It Works
Contract Listed
A platform lists a contract: "Will [TERM] be said during [COMPANY]'s earnings call?"
Earnings Call Happens
The company holds its quarterly earnings call. A live transcript is generated.
Transcript Search
Settlement source searches the official transcript. Term found = YES resolves. Not found = NO resolves.
Types of Mentions Markets
💊Pharma
Drug names, therapy brands, pipeline compounds
e.g., Carvykti, Ozempic, Keytruda
🤖Tech
Product names, AI features, platform launches
e.g., Copilot, Gemini, Vision Pro
🏦Finance
Regulatory terms, compliance language, risk factors
e.g., Basel III, credit loss, provision
📉Macro / Fed
Economic keywords, policy language, forward guidance
e.g., Recession, tariff, soft landing
🛒Consumer
Brand names, product launches, partnership mentions
e.g., Prime Video, Apple Pay, Rivian
₿Crypto
Token names, compliance terms, blockchain products
e.g., Bitcoin, stablecoin, DeFi
Why Prices Aren't Random
- Historical mention frequency matters. Some terms appear on earnings calls quarter after quarter. Traders track these patterns across prior transcripts to estimate probability.
- Earnings call scripts are partially predictable. Prepared remarks are drafted in advance by IR teams. Key products and initiatives are almost always mentioned in prepared remarks, while Q&A sections are harder to predict.
- Product launches and approvals force discussion. If a drug just received FDA approval or a product just launched, management will almost certainly address it.
- Analyst questions are semi-predictable. Sellside analyst preview notes often telegraph which topics will come up in Q&A. Informed traders read these before pricing mentions contracts.
⚠️ The near-certainty trap
When a term has been mentioned on many consecutive calls, contracts often price above 90¢. That doesn't mean it's free money — the risk/reward at that price is skewed heavily against you. Why 99¢ bets aren't free money →
Settlement & Edge Cases
- What counts as a "mention"? Typically an exact text match in the official transcript. Paraphrases, abbreviations, or synonyms usually don't count unless the contract rules explicitly include them.
- Delayed or rescheduled calls. If a company postpones its earnings call, the contract settlement is typically delayed to match. Check contract rules for how long the window stays open.
- CEO skips prepared remarks. Rare, but if management skips to Q&A, terms that would have appeared in prepared remarks may not be mentioned at all.
- Word appears only in Q&A. Still counts. Settlement is based on the full transcript, not just prepared remarks — unless the contract specifies otherwise.
For more on how prediction markets determine outcomes, see How settlement sources work →
Risk Factors
Where to Trade
Kalshi — Primary venue for mentions markets
- Regulatory basis: CFTC-regulated designated contract market (DCM)
- Access: US-based traders, 18+
- Trading fees: See platform for current fee schedule
- Settlement: Based on official earnings call transcripts